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Runtime: 9:52
0:00 EU Automakers Start Raising ICE Prices
1:39 VW Tries to Avoid Strikes
2:12 Mercedes Nears Critical Production Level
2:41 Former Tesla Worker Gets 2 Years for Stealing Trade Secrets
3:06 Waymo Starts Expanding Overseas
4:50 BYD Building Humanoid Robot Team
5:47 Toyota Slashes Starting Price of 2025 bZ4X
6:39 Russia Wants to Develop Its Own Vehicle Platform
7:30 Nissan Reveals New Pickup in China
8:16 Speed Bump for Mercedes L3 System Approved
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
EU AUTOMAKERS START RAISING ICE PRICES
The European auto industry is wrapping up a very tough 2024, but 2025 could be even worse. European automakers are begging the EU to ease up on fines for missing CO2 targets next year. They’re facing billions of euros in fines at a time when they’re struggling with a sluggish market, with investments in EVs that are not paying off, and with Chinese competition that’s capturing a growing chunk of the market. To meet those CO2 standards European automakers need to have EVs account for 20% of their sales by January 1. But EV sales are down 5% this year and only account for 13.2% of all the vehicles sold in Europe. The ACEA, which represents Europe’s automakers, says the industry faces up to €15 billion in fines, with nearly half of that going to Volkswagen. So VW, Stellantis and Renault have raised the prices of their ICE vehicles by several hundred euros to deliberately close the price gap with EVs and to push more customers into electrics. They’re also going to buy emission credits, called pooling, from Tesla, Volvo and SAIC to avoid fines. But whether they’re buying credits or paying fines, it’s still going to cost them billions, which is coming at the worst possible time.
VW TRIES TO AVOID STRIKES
And besides the massive fines it faces, Volkswagen is in a last ditch effort to hammer out an agreement with its unions in Germany to try and avoid a strike. If they can’t come to a conclusion by this Friday, the unions promise to start a series of strikes against the company next month. We think that will happen because the union says that any plant closings are unacceptable and the company says it can’t survive without closing at least three of them.
MERCEDES NEARS CRITICAL PRODUCTION LEVEL
Meanwhile, the top labor rep at Mercedes-Benz warns that if production drops below 2 million vehicles a year it will be fatal for the company in the long run. Right now Mercedes is barely on track to sell 2 million vehicles this year. The company has prioritized profits over market share, but now labor representatives on the board of supervisors want Mercedes to do what it needs to boost sales and market share.
FORMER TESLA WORKER GETS 2 YEARS FOR STEALING TRADE SECRETS
A German-Canadian resident of China was just sentenced to two years in prison by the U.S. Department of Justice for stealing trade secrets from Tesla. He pleaded guilty in June to conspiring with his business partner to sell Tesla’s battery secrets to undercover FBI agents. The partner was also charged but he remains at large.
WAYMO STARTS EXPANDING OVERSEAS
Waymo is expanding to more U.S. cities and now it’s going global. The autonomous ride-hailing company will test a small fleet of self-driving Jaguar I-Pace’s in Tokyo early next year, which will initially map key areas of the city. The company partnered with Nihon Kotsu, Tokyo’s largest taxi company, which will oversee the management and maintenance of the vehicles. Waymo says this will help its system learn how to adapt to traffic that drives on the left and how to operate in one of the most densely packed cities in the world.
BYD BUILDING HUMANOID ROBOT TEAM
We’ve already noted the massive growth tear that BYD is on and it’s getting into another area that’s expected to explode, humanoid robots. CarNewsChina reports that BYD is actively trying to build a team that will develop the technology needed for humanoid robots. BYD has already invested in Chinese company UBTECH’s Walker S robot and tested it in a manufacturing setting, so it probably saw some benefits from those trials. But it’s not just BYD. UBTECH has also worked with Audi, BMW, Dongfeng, FAW, Geely and NIO. Tesla is famously developing its Optimus robot. Hyundai now owns Boston Dynamics, which is working on a robot called Atlas that Toyota is also testing. And even the supplier Magna is planning to try them in manufacturing.
TOYOTA SLASHES STARTING PRICE OF 2025 bZ4X
Toyota is trying to light a fire under its EV sales. It’s offering even more deals on the bZ4X in the U.S. Last week we reported that some regions were slashing lease prices from $7,500 – $10,000 as well as offering 0% APR and now Toyota is cutting the starting price of 2025 models. An XLE version starts at roughly $38,500, including destination charges, which is $6,000 cheaper than before. While higher trim models get about $5,400 off their starting price. The 2025 bZ4X should start arriving at dealers right around the time Trump officially takes office and likely gets rid of the federal EV tax credit.
RUSSIA WANTS TO DEVELOP ITS OWN VEHICLE PLATFORM
After Russia invaded Ukraine, every foreign automaker abandoned the market. And then the Chinese rushed in and now they dominate in Russia. So Russia wants to develop its own vehicle platform within the next three years and most of the funding for the $900 million project has already been approved by the Russian Parliament. It will be a modular architecture that supports different body types and sizes as well as different powertrains, including hybrid and all-electrics. Some estimate it will create more than 300,000 jobs, but others say production would need to be in the 400,000-500,000 range. So we think it’s hard to see a path where the Chinese don’t continue their take over of Russia.
NISSAN REVEALS NEW PICKUP IN CHINA
Nissan and one of its joint venture partners are introducing a new pickup in China. The truck is called the Z9 and while it’s said to be built on an all-new off-road platform, we think it’s a modified version of the Nissan Navara or Frontier pickup. They’re roughly the same size and the Z9 uses the same diesel as the Navara as well as a 2.0L turbocharged gas engine. There’s also talks about hybrids in the future. Nissan has tried selling pickups in China with its joint venture partners, but those models retained their Nissan styling and tech, so with its overall sales falling in the country, it looks like Nissan is, at least, turning to more local styling.
SPEED BUMP FOR MERCEDES L3 SYSTEM APPROVED
Mercedes has been approved in Germany to raise the speed limit for its Level 3 hands-free driving system. It previously only worked up to 65 km/h or about 40 MPH, but now it will operate up to 95 km/h or 59 MPH. However, customers will have to wait until the spring of next year for the upgrade to be sent out. A similar update is expected to be made in the U.S. – the Level 3 tech is available on some models in California and Nevada – but there’s no timeline for that rollout yet.
That brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.
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I know Russia wants to keep it’s friends close, not having that many of them politically. Yet, if they wanted to have their own EV platform, they could just require a Chinese com0any to create a JV with a local company, China did with foreign OEMs years ago!
Kit,
In the comments from yesterday, which spilled over to this morning, you expressed that it made no sense to you that Ferrari and Lamborghini would build an EV. That the powertrain was a lot of what defined their vehicles and with there so much commonality electric motors (and batteries for that matter, in comparison to that between engines and transmissions), who would want to spend that kind of money when there is so much sameness? Yet, there in lay the opportunity! That means that they can/must do more to provide and visual and visceral differences between their products and others. It’s like saying there is no reason to try to be a painter of notarity, sense Picasso and Rembrandt have paint and they are the best! When you look at Tesla Model S, Lucid Air, Porshe Taycan and the Audi A6 e-tron, these are all different vehicles, even though they are EVs. Then when you include the Ionic 5 N and the Daytona Charger EV, they could add custom sound and driving experiences that their customers want! There have been cases of people retrofitting older ICE vehicles in to EVs, so what would stop someone with money from getting a new battery or motors for their vintage EV? Just a thought.
The cheapest new Ferrari is almost $300K, and most of what they sell costs much more than that. There may well be enough Ferrariphiles to sell a few EVs for $400-500K. I guess we’ll find out.
I checked sales numbers for Taycan, and they have been fairly flat at 7-8K a year, for full model years. Tesla S numbers are down from what they have been, but that’s not surprising, considering its age, and the new competition that has come along. There will soon be electric Porsche 718s that will be interesting.
As far as new batteries for EVs when they get old, yeah, it will be possible to hand make battery packs, and reprogram the charging and powertrain software for what’s available at the time, but it won’t be easy, if original battery packs are long since out of production.
wmb,
In terms of differentiating, I feel that all EVs right now are basically just straight line runners. Handling is generally sloppy. The batteries are low but heavy and the weight is what holds them back with the current configurations. So, Ferrari/Lamborghini will find success with substantially better handling, substantially better brakes, far better interiors(unlike those plastic toy interiors of current EVs), and they can wrap it all in a body design that evokes positive emotion other than the boring lumps of generic designs that current EVs have. The good news, they are the experts in the areas that they can differentiate themselves in. They can also focus on high EV motor efficiency, lighter batteries including solid or semi-solid state batteries, top of the line inverter tech, and a true fast charging experience so people can get back on the track quickly instead of waiting around after a few laps. There are boundaries to be pushed in EV tech and most don’t because those boundaries come at a price. Ferrari/Lamborghini and others in that realm of expensive cars should not have those constraints as their vehicle prices are very high anyhow.
I look to Koenigsegg that is developing very high end EV motors and electronics for their high end hypercars. They call their unique motor designs “dark matter” which is a cool marketing name for their quark motor. That is how Koenigsegg will differentiate itself to everyone, and that is how Ferrari/Lamborghini can follow suit. There is a lot of room left in EVs if companies only look for them….especially Ferrari/Lamborghini. If Ferrari/Lamborghini just does what everyone else is doing, then yes, there will not be much of a difference in their EVs versus others.
Personally, I’d like to see VW offer to trade switching ALL of their ICE vehicles to hybrid technology in return
for a temporary reprieve from regulations that might put them out of business. They might gain enough from the hybrids to actually meet the standards and it wouldn’t hurt to remind the politicians about the upcoming US tariffs. If that doesn’t work, it might be time to spin off parts of the company into separate companies. I’m thinking: VW parts, VW Sales (separate for NA, China, EU and ‘rest of the world’) VW engineering, VW Assembly, VW Engine Works and VW EV. Each of those has different needs and skills and some, like VW Engine Works, don’t really have a future. It wouldn’t hurt if they sold some parts to other companies. Maybe Ford might sell them some of it’s part making ventures as well.
For now, Ferrari will have to deal with the same batteries as everyone else, with ~250 Wh/kg energy density. Motors and inverters are already mature technology. There will be small gains in motor and inverter efficiency, but motors are already 85-90% efficient, and inverters 98-99% efficient. The bottom line is that Ferrari, Lamborghini, Koenigsegg, etc. can’t do much different with EV powertrains than what everyone else is doing. The only big breakthrough to change that will be if/when batteries come along that have significantly higher energy density. I’m sure a few people will be willing to pay mid-6 and 7 figure prices for bodywork, interiors, fancy brakes, and exotic name plates. The one I’m looking forward to seeing is the 718 EV, a true sports car, to sell for “only” $78-105K, by Car and Driver estimates.
The last I knew, VW was a lot more vertically integrated than most mass market car companies. Would Bosch, Denso or someone want to buy some of that business? Maybe not, as the supplier companies have major challenges too.
Kit/kevin/MERKUR —
IMHO, while many strongly feel much of what is loved with ICE sports/super/exotic/hyper cars by making them an EV, which may or may not be true, that in and of itself will not keep them from being great vehicles! One just might not love it the same way. And the Ionic 5 N and the Charger EV demonstrates that OEMs can do much to give some of that same flavor, but shows the blank canvas they have to give customers what they want or new experiences they may not have expected. Can you imagine a Ferrari EV with lighter, solid-state batteries, as well as the sounds and shift sensations of an Enzo, F40 or another favorite from Ferraris past?! If someone has the resources to spend $300-500K for a new Ferrari or Lambo, why couldn’t they retrofit a 20 to 30 year old EV model with the latest software, motor and battery tech of that era?
Would Ferrari buyers want an EV with fake shifts and fake noise? Maybe so, but I certainly wouldn’t.
In 20-30 years, people will probably be retrofitting Ferrari EVs with Ferrari V12s or turbo V8s from wrecks, or if they can’t find them, they’ll use Chevy V8s.