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Runtime: 11:36
0:00 VW Faces Crippling Labor Strikes
0:54 VW May Move ID Buzz Out of Germany
1:29 EV Raw Material Costs Plummet
2:21 BYD Blade Battery = NMC Performance at LFP Cost
3:42 Most U.S. Onshoring Due to EV Battery Production
5:32 Truck Fleet Doesn’t Like Nikola FCEVs
6:55 Toyota Delays Next Gen EVs
7:30 Toyota bZ3X EV Debuts in China
8:05 Stellantis Rejoins ACEA
8:44 Trump Wants to Cancel USPS Electric Trucks
9:35 Mercedes-AMG Reveals New Sports Car
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
VW FACES CRIPPLING LABOR STRIKES
Volkswagen workers are cranking up the pressure on the company. As we reported last week, workers held a four-hour strike today at nine plants in Germany to protest the automaker’s plan to cut jobs and wages. Union leaders and management are also holding talks today about a new deal but before negotiations started the IG Metall union issued a warning to VW that it has “one last chance” to reach a deal before the end of the year or it will face strikes in 2025 that “this company has never experienced before.” VW says it needs to make the cuts in order to remain competitive but so far, the two sides aren’t close to a deal.
VW MAY MOVE ID BUZZ OUT OF GERMANY
And here’s another thing that isn’t going to sit well with the union. A report from a local German newspaper says VW is considering moving part or all of ID Buzz production out of Germany to its plant in Poland. A VW spokesperson confirmed that it is discussing different scenarios but says it hasn’t made a final decision yet. Even so, something is holding the van back. VW set a sales target of 130,000 a year but in the first half of the year it’s only delivered 15,000 ID Buzz’s.
EV RAW MATERIAL COSTS PLUMMET
The prices for raw materials needed to make EV batteries are dropping fast. Bloomberg New Energy Finance reports that in the last two years, lithium prices dropped 86%, cobalt fell 46% and nickel fell 43%. But that’s not really good news for the EV sector. Those prices are down because EV demand slowed, especially in the U.S. and EU. And there’s actually a glut of those materials. While the price competition in EVs gets all the headlines, the price competition for battery makers is even more brutal. Another reason why cobalt and nickel prices are down is the growing popularity of lithium iron phosphate batteries, which don’t use those materials. So, battery experts don’t expect prices to pick up again for a couple of years.
BYD BLADE BATTERY = NMC PERFORMANCE AT LFP COST
Remember when everyone said that cylindrical batteries were the best for EVs? Well, not any more they don’t. Robin Zheng, the CEO of CATL even made fun of Elon Musk, saying he doesn’t know how to make batteries and that the cylindrical 4860 will never be successful.
Meanwhile, BYD, which is the second largest EV battery maker, and makes LFP blade batteries, says it will cut their cost 15% when the next generation launches in the first half of next year. It will also increase the energy density from 150 watt hours per kilogram to 210 watt hours and have a 3C charge rate, which is how charge rates are described in China. A 1C charge rate means a battery can be fully charged in one hour. A 2C rate means it can charge two times in an hour. So a 3C charge rate means it can be fully charged in 20 minutes. BYD says the new blade battery will offer performance close to typical lithium batteries but at LFP prices. According to Goldman Sachs, global battery prices are now around $111 per kilo-watt hour, and are expected to drop to $80 by 2026.
MOST U.S. ONSHORING DUE TO EV BATTERY PRODUCTION
And as long as we’re talking about EV batteries, here’s an interesting factoid. Half of all of the foreign direct investment for reshoring manufacturing in the United States since 2021 was for EV battery production. The rest went to computer chips, pharmaceuticals, solar panels, and raw materials like lithium, rare earths and hydrogen. President Trump is talking about eliminating all subsidies for EVs and batteries, but that would slam the door shut on the greatest reshoring effort going on in the country. So what do you think? Will Trump actually get rid of EV subsidies, or keep some of them, or what?
TRUCK FLEET DOESN’T LIKE NIKOLA FCEVs
Looks like Nikola is having some teething issues launching its hydrogen-powered semi-trucks. Coyote Container, a shipping and logistics company, was one of the first to get the fuel cell truck earlier this year, but says operating costs are more, that there’s no way to tell how much fuel actually costs, there’s also weight limitations and reliability issues. It said the first-time power cut out unexpectedly, the truck had 900 miles on it, but it’s happened 5 more times, the most recent one with nearly 30,000 miles on the odometer, which has resulted in Coyote filing complaints to NHTSA. On top of that, it says the hydrogen-powered Nikola sells for 5-10 times more and can weigh anywhere from 7,500-11,000 pounds more than a standard Class 8 diesel drayage truck, which hinders how much cargo you can carry due to on-road weight limits. These are some of the very first models to reach customer hands, so I think some issues should be expected. But unlike early EV adopters who typically had a second or third car to go to, it’s not as easy for a trucking company to just grab another semi out of the garage. So, we may not see these trucking companies get the same free pass as some automakers.
TOYOTA DELAYS NEXT GEN EVs
According to reports out of Japan, Toyota is pushing back its next-gen EVs for most of the world. But this seems less to do with a slowdown in EV demand and more to do with Toyota needing more time to develop its future production technology, like gigacastings and cars that drive themselves to different assembly areas. They say it’s pushing back production of an electric 3-row Toyota SUV in the U.S. from 2025 until the first half of 2026 and delaying Lexus’ next EV until the middle of 2027.
TOYOTA bZ3X EV DEBUTS IN CHINA
But Toyota is pushing ahead with new EVs in China with its joint venture partner GAC. It just opened up orders for its newest electric SUV, the bZ3X. The model features a 150 kW or roughly 200 horsepower electric motor, up to 620 kilometers or 385 miles of range and hands-free driving capability. The bZ3X is scheduled to go on sale in China in March with a starting price under $14,000.
STELLA REJOINS ACEA
Stellantis is going to rejoin the ACEA or European Automobile Manufacturers Association, a lobbying group that represents the European auto industry. Two years ago, Stellantis left the group because former CEO Carlos Tavares wanted to set up his own lobbying forum. Tavares was unhappy with the ACEA’s support of the EU’s EV transition plan. He wanted the EU to ease off the EV mandate and allow more hybrids and plug-in hybrids. But with Tavares gone, Stellantis is re-joining the ACEA, which is welcoming it back with open arms.
TRUMP WANTS TO CANCEL USPS ELECTRIC TRUCKS
As we said earlier in the show, the Trump Administration wants to get rid of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit. It also wants to scale back fuel efficiency standards and now Reuters reports that Trump wants to stop the U.S. Postal Service’s transition to electric vehicles. Sources tell Reuters that the Trump transition team is looking into canceling multi-billion dollar contracts the USPS signed with Oshkosh and Ford to purchase electric delivery vehicles. In 2023, Congress gave the USPS $3 billion to purchase 66,000 electric vehicles and charging equipment. However, it will be legally challenging for the Trump Administration to cancel those contracts because the USPS is an autonomous federal agency with its own governing board.
MERCEDES-AMG REVEALS NEW SPORTS CAR
Mercedes-AMG is officially kicking off its new limited-edition series, called Mythos, and the first car to come out of that is the PureSpeed. The two-door, two-seat sports car is one of just a few models in the world that comes with no top or windshield. But it also features an F1-style halo bar, which we had hoped was an indication of an F1-inspired powertrain. But it actually comes with an AMG staple; a 4.0L twin-turbo V8. In the PureSpeed it sends roughly 580 horsepower to all four wheels through a 9-speed automatic trans, which gets you from 0-100 km/h in 3.6 seconds. Other highlights include a semi-active suspension system, standard ceramic brakes, 4-wheel steering and it looks like you get your own matching, custom helmet. But with only 250 examples being built, you know it won’t be cheap.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day.
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@VW: it is looking grim for VW in Germany. They may get hit by the labor unions like the US automakers have been. The labor unions have created good terms and conditions for the workers over the past century, but it seems like they are crippling the major players, now, and prevent them from becoming competitive against the new entrants.
Mexico would seem a good place to build ID Buzz, were it not for Trump’s threat to break the new NAFTA. Being a retro vehicle, North America might be the biggest market. A lower price would help sell it, but it’s not small, the US version being only 9 inches shorter than a Pacifica Sienna.
If prices are low for raw materials, wouldn’t this be a good time to lock in long term supply deals? Unless they expect that NaCl chemistry will make the others obsolete.
Also, acting deranged is a workable negotiating strategy in business, even if it is frowned on among major powers. Even threatening things you can’t do works if it results in you getting something you want. It doesn’t have to make sense, it only has to work. Note: it works best if you never have to deal with the other party ever again.
Having a hard time seeing how Toyota will make any money on their new BZ3X EV. With the features mentioned and a starting price under $14,000, and having to split the profits with their Chinese partner, how much could they possibly make on these vehicles? I know the labor rates in China are significantly lower than ours, but still. You can’t even touch a stripped Suzuki Swift, Toyota Corolla or Hyundai _____ for that money here. That will barely buy you a decent used vehicle.
That $14K price for the. BZ3X doesn’t sound close to right, even for China. C&D says it will start at $40K in the US, when and if sold there.
I like the concept of the ID buzz, but that $70K price is a non-starter. Of course I am not nostalgic for a 60s VW van so I am not their target audience. I am sure there are plenty out there that have the right combination of nostalgia and cash. Hard to predict the market for it, but I feel it will end up like the Cybertruck. Sell a small amount and then fall flat as the combination of people with money to burn and nostalgia runs dry.
It doesn’t matter where the late, over weight, under performing ID Buzz is made, it is as dead as Diess’s career.
First announced in 2017, Tesla subsequently produced the Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck. At 6,174 lbs, the ID Buzz is over weight compared to the 4,000 lb Model 3, 4,398 lb Model Y, and closest to 6,669 lb Cybertruck. As for performance, 234 miles range is a sad joke, less than the 240 miles of my 2019 Model 3.
VW should put the ID Buzz production in the least efficient, most costly factory, under direct operation of the VW board of directors, and then let the market close the ID Buzz, the factory, and fire the board of directors.
Bob, the ID. Buzz does not compete with Model Y, or any other Tesla. It is a 205 inch long, 128 inch wheelbase, 75 inch tall minivan. Yeah, the range is clearly underwhelming, but for soccer moms or retired wannabe hippies with home charging, that is not an issue. The starting price of $60K is an issue for many people, but not those who spend $70K for pickup trucks, and $80K for Model X.
The buzz will flop without significant price cuts. Nostalgia is a niche market and much like what Tesla has learned from the cyber truck niche markets dry up quick once the few folks that want and can afford them have made their purchase. Then you must appeal to the masses and a 70k mini van does not have mass appeal.
My first car was a 1966 VW MicroBus, the last of the 6 V battery models. It was very practical with 28 MPG from a 1500 cc air cooled engine. It had a single, steel frame bed with folded legs on the engine compartment and the other legs behind the driver seat. Under the bed, there was space for a duffle back or whatever. Half the space under it held a box of parts, engine oil, tool box, and a collapse cardboard box. Never had to change the oil, just replace what leaked out. Whenever the mileage went below 28 MPG, I parked the passenger side wheels on the curb and used the dry gutter to: (1) adjust valve backlash, and (2) swap the grit cleaned set of spark plugs.
If VW took out ~2,000 lbs (4,400 kg) by using aluminum and KISS the interior, the existing drivetrain and motor would make it a 300 mi range, spacious EV. A single sliding passenger side door and interior latched rear door(s) would complete the package. Add a wireless powered iPhone holder somewhere in front of the driver and an iPad or MacBook ‘dock’ in the middle. The only VW electronics handle drivetrain, cabin heating and cooling, and drive by wire front and optional rear steering.
There are so many ways VW could make a practical, affordable, MicroBus but the ‘brain worm’ that fired Diess makes that impossible … at VW.
I did a little plausibility check regarding Toyota’s China pricing. The bz3 is a sedan, but will serve., Quote (from last year):
Toyota’s joint venture in China, FAW Toyota, officially made the bZ3 available at a launch event yesterday, offering three versions with starting prices of RMB 169,800 ($24,710), 189,800 and 199,800 respectively.
Source https://cnevpost.com/2023/04/17/toyota-bz3-with-byd-battery-motor-launched-in-china/
Sean Wagner, thanks for the info. Those prices are more what I would have expected than $14K. If a BZ3 makes it to the US, it will probably be a CUV version.
The air cooled VW Microbus was probably the most efficiently packaged ICE vehicle ever made, with original Mini a close second. My sister had the Westphalia popup camper version, I think a 1977. Those would sleep 3 adults and a small kid in a vehicle ~170 inches long.