AD #3943 – U.S. Has 1M Overcapacity with EVs; Huawei Maextro Targets Rolls, Maybach; BMWs Roll Off Line Autonomously

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

U.S. HAS 1M OVERCAPACITY WITH EVs
If the Trump Administration yanks consumer subsidies to buy electric cars and does not loosen CO2 standards, then automakers in the U.S. are on a pathway to bankruptcy, says Browne Consulting. EV sales are already lower than automakers expected and if incentives to buy them go away, sales will not just slow down, they’ll go down. And if automakers miss their CO2 targets they face massive fines. Another problem: automakers face a growing level of overcapacity with BEVs. Browne Consulting says the U.S. has the capacity to make 2.3 million EVs, but will only sell 1.4 million this year, leaving an overcapacity of 900,000 vehicles. Next year, as more plants come online, the U.S. will have the capacity to make 3 million BEVs, but sales are only projected to reach 1.8 million, leaving an overcapacity of 1.2 million. The buzz in Washington is that the Trump Administration will likely freeze EPA emission standards where they are, which would give automakers some amount of breathing room when it comes to selling EVs.

U.S. EV Overcapacity
	Capacity	Sales	Overcapacity
2024	2.3 M	1.37 M	0.9 M
2025	3.0 M	1.8 M	1.2 M
Source: Browne Consulting

BOSCH SLASHING JOBS & WORK HOURS
German supplier Bosch isn’t done slashing costs. Last week, the company announced it will get rid of 5,500 employees by the end of 2027, mostly in Germany. And in addition to that, the supplier is also planning to cut hours and wages for 10,000 workers in Germany. Employees will have hours reduced to 35 hours per week from 38-40 hours, which will cut their pay by 12.5%. The union, IG Metall, says most of the layoffs are related to automated driving and steering products and it has promised to fight Bosch’s cost cutting plans.

GM HEADED TO F1 IN 2026
It looks like General Motors will be getting into Formula One in 2026 after all. GM wanted to pair up with Andretti Global to enter F1 in 2026, but most of the F1 teams did not want another team added to the grid. And a key reason seems to be that they just did not like Michael Andretti, who ran Andretti Global. But in something of a boardroom coup last month, Michael Andretti was demoted to being just an advisor to the team. And, suddenly it looks like GM is getting the green light to enter the series, probably as a factory team that will be branded as Cadillac. 

  

BMWs ROLL OFF LINE AUTONOMOUSLY
Newly built BMWs in Germany are rolling themselves off the production line. It’s been testing what it calls Automated Driving In-Plant since 2022, which uses lidar sensors installed along a route as well as externally generated maps and a route planner to guide vehicles, like the 5 and 7 Series and MINI Countryman on the more than 1 kilometer path. Since this tech doesn’t require the vehicle to have a complete autonomous driving system, up to 90% of the models at a plant can drive themselves off the line. But it’s probably also part of the reason the driving looks a little herky-jerky right now. However, BMW plans to incorporate in-vehicle sensors into the system. So, in the future vehicles could drive themselves through testing zones and into outdoor shipping, rather than just to the finishing area where they go now. The system is no longer in the testing phase and entered into series production at two plants in Germany with more sites to follow over the next couple of years.

MERCEDES DEVELOPS NEUROMORPHIC COMPUTING
And speaking of tech, Mercedes shared some interesting developments it’s working on for the future. One is called neuromorphic computing, which mimics how the human brain works to improve AI neural networks. When applied to something like a vehicle’s vision system, it would be able to recognize things around it faster and more clearly. Mercedes claims neuromorphic computing could reduce the energy required for data processing in autonomous driving by 90 per cent compared to current systems. Or how about paint that generates electricity? It’s researching solar modules that are thinner than a human hair and can be applied to the surface of a vehicle. In ideal conditions, it says a completely covered mid-size SUV could produce enough energy to drive 12,000 kilometers or nearly 7,500 miles a year. Another way to eke even more mileage out of an EV could be the introduction of an in-drive braking system. Since electric vehicles mostly slow down through regenerative braking, Mercedes figures you don’t need such a big system. So, it’s looking at incorporating the brakes right into the front and/or rear drive unit. It expects the system to be virtually maintenance free, plus no more brake dust and there’s even the possibility to lighten the wheels and tires or to have a completely solid wheel since you don’t have to cool the brakes. Lastly, Mercedes wants to replace current electrical inverter systems with micro-converters that are placed directly on battery cells so it can regulate the output of the pack better. It says early tests have shown it can provide a constant 800-volts, regardless of the state of charge or the health of the cells. So, it can get better charging, range and even use different cell chemistries in the same pack.

EV BATTERY REPLACEMENT TO BE CHEAPER THAN ICE 
Some of the biggest concerns consumers have about buying a used EV is the health of the battery and the cost of replacing it. But a new study from Recurrent found that those fears could be overblown. Excluding recalls, Battery replacements are rare, only 1% of EVs from 2016 or newer have had batteries replaced. Plus, batteries are usually covered by warranty. Recurrent also found that even if a battery needs to be replaced, the cost will drop dramatically by the end of the decade because prices continue to fall. According to research firm RMI, battery cell prices could fall as low as $35/kWh by 2030, which translates to a pack price of around $50/kWh. And that means by the end of the decade it would cost about $3,375 to replace a 75-kWh battery or about the same as costs to replace a 4-cylinder engine today.

HUAWEI MAEXTRO TARGETS ROLLS, MAYBACH
Chinese automakers captured all kinds of attention with low cost EVs like the $4,500 Wuling Mini EV and the $9,800 BYD Seagull. But they’re also competing at the top end of the market. Take a look at Huawei’s Maextro S800 that it developed with JAC. It makes its official debut tomorrow and we’ll get more details then. But the all-electric luxury sedan is targeted directly at Rolls-Royce, Bentley and Maybach. Collectively, those European luxury brands sell about 15,000 cars a year in China. But Huawei and JAC plan to make 35,000 S800s a year and reportedly have an SUV version coming too. No doubt they’ll start exporting them too, which is going to give the Euro lux brands a miserable time.

CHERY CKD AT FORMER NISSAN SPAIN PLANT
Back in April, Chinese automaker Chery formed a partnership with Spain’s EV Motors to build vehicles at an old Nissan factory in Spain. And now the companies are celebrating the start of production. Right now, it’s shipping in partially disassembled vehicles, which are then reassembled. In the future, it will transition to Completely Knocked Down kits, which will require additional welding, painting and assembly. Three models are initially being built. BEV and ICE versions of the Omodo 5 and two PHEVs that are rebadged versions of Chery’s Tiggo 7 and Tiggo 8 models. The will PHEVs will be sold under EV Motors Ebro brand. Chery and EV Motors are aiming to produce 50,000 vehicles a year by 2027 and 150,000 vehicles annually in 2029.

But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day.