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Runtime: 10:24
0:00 Tesla Market Cap Back Over $1 Trillion
0:54 Toyota Says ZEV Mandate Is Impossible to Meet
2:09 BYD On Track to Outsell Nissan, Honda, Ford
2:44 BYD Adds 7th Model to Mexico Line-Up
4:52 MG4 Outsells Tesla Y in Australia
5:54 Sales of Used NEVs Red Hot in China
6:46 U.S.-Made Ioniq 5 Is $700 More Expensive
8:10 Continental Posts Higher Earnings
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TESLA MARKET CAP BACK OVER $1 TRILLION
Tesla’s market cap hit one trillion dollars again. The stock started surging a week after the company held its “We Robot” event last month, where it unveiled the Cybercab and Robovan. And then Donald Trump’s re-election pushed it even higher. Elon Musk will likely hold a position in the next Trump Administration, possibly as a newly named “Secretary of Cost Cutting,” and investors apparently like that idea. Tesla’s stock has more than doubled since its low in late April, and is up 30% since the election last week. Bloomberg reports that hedge funds which shorted Tesla stock have lost more than $5 billion in the stock turned around.
TOYOTA SAYS ZEV MANDATE IS IMPOSSIBLE TO MEET
Toyota North America COO Jack Hollis is warning that California’s ZEV mandate is impossible to meet. And that standard was adopted by another dozen states, which collectively account for about 40% of U.S. car sales. The California Air Resources Board’s Zero Emission Vehicle mandate requires that 35% of the vehicles sold must be BEVs or PHEVs at the start of the 2026 Model Year, which begins next summer. Presently, California is at 27%, Colorado 22% and Washington 20%, which is commendable but still far short of the standards. While other states are not even close. New York is at 12%, New Mexico at 5% and Rhode Island is at 9%. If the regulations stand as they are, automakers and car dealers will be forced to limit what they can sell to customers. And it doesn’t get any easier. For the 2027 Model Year, the ZEV mandate rises to 43%, and in 2028 it goes to 51%.
BYD ON TRACK TO OUTSELL NISSAN, HONDA, FORD
It sure looks like BYD is going to surpass Nissan, Honda and Ford in global sales this year. Through the first three quarters of the year, BYD outsold Nissan, was very close to Honda and is on track to outsell Ford. Last month BYD sold over half a million vehicles globally, and if it keeps that pace up it will surpass Ford to become the 6th largest automaker in the world. And it could be just a matter of time before BYD surpasses all the others because it keeps on expanding and expanding.
| GLOBAL SALES Q1-Q3, 2024 | |
|---|---|
| Ford | 3.281 M |
| Honda | 2.799 M |
| BYD | 2.746 M |
| Nissan | 2.504 M |
| Source: Bloomberg | |
BYD ADDS 7TH MODEL TO MEXICO LINE-UP
BYD already has 6 models on sale in Mexico and it just added a 7th. The Yuan Pro, which is called the Yuan Up in China, is going on sale now. In its home market the EV is positioned as a more entry-level model and comes with three LFP Blade batteries. But it still features a pretty decent-looking interior as well. It doesn’t say what battery or batteries the Mexican version will come with, but revealed that it will have up to 380 kilometers or 236 miles of range on the NEDC test cycle, which is a bit outdated compared to EPA and even WLTP. However, it keeps that same interior. In China, the model starts at about $13,400, but it’s getting the biggest price hike we’ve seen for a BYD vehicle going to Mexico. The Yuan Pro will start at roughly $28,200.
MG4 OUTSELLS TESLA Y IN AUSTRALIA
Now we shift away from BYD, but sticking with Chinese EV sales in other countries, the MG4 was the best-selling electric in Australia last month. Nearly 1,500 units were sold in October, which is still relatively small, but it’s also the first-time Tesla wasn’t the top seller in Australia. The Tesla Model Y came in second with roughly 1,000 sales, followed by the Model 3 and a couple of BYD vehicles. But to be fair, MG cut prices by $6,700 in September. Before that the MG4 was the third best-selling electric in the country. It raised prices back up again in November, but only by another $1,300. So, it’s still cheaper than before and it will be interesting to see if that impacts sales. While MG was once an iconic British brand, it’s now owned by SAIC and the MG4 is made in China.
SALES OF USED NEVs RED HOT IN CHINA
Sales of New Energy Vehicles or NEVs are not only red hot in China’s new car market, it’s also the fastest growing segment in the used market. According to the China Automobile Dealers Association, nearly 790,000 pre-owned NEVs, which includes BEVs, PHEVs and EREVs, were sold in the first nine-months of the year, which is up 54% compared to last year. The average transaction price for a used NEV in the third quarter was $10,900 compared to $7,600 for a used gas-powered vehicle. Used NEV sales are expected to pass 1 million units for the first time this year but that’s just a fraction of the 20 million used vehicles that are expected to be sold in China.
U.S.-MADE IONIQ5 IS $700 MORE EXPENSIVE
Hyundai announced pricing for the 2025 Ioniq 5 in the U.S., which features a bigger battery, a longer range and a standard NACS charging port. The battery for standard range models was increased from 58 to 63-kWh and the battery for long range models is now 84-kWh up from 77.4-kWh. That helped boost the Ioniq 5’s range to 245-318 miles depending on the setup, up from 220-303 miles. The RWD base model with 168-horsepower and 245 miles of range, starts just under $44,000 including destination charges, about $700 more than before. And the top of the line 320 horsepower, AWD model with 269 miles of range is just under $60,000. The IONIQ 5 is now also built at the company’s plant in Georgia, which means it’s eligible for a $3,750 federal tax credit at purchase, when it wasn’t before. Like all EVs it still qualifies for the full credit when leased. The new Ioniq 5 will arrive at dealerships by the end of the year.
CONTINENTAL POSTS HIGHER EARNINGS
While many automakers and suppliers struggled in the third quarter, the German supplier Continental posted better than expected earnings by cutting costs and adjusting prices. Its revenue of €9.8 billion was down 4% but its adjusted EBIT shot up 36% to €873 million and its net income soared 63% to €486 million. Conti’s Automotive business, which it’s preparing to spin off, brought in €4.8 billion in revenue in the third quarter, down nearly 5% compared to a year ago. But the company expects its auto unit to improve in the 4th quarter, thanks to new model launches, production increases and cost reductions. Investors liked what they saw and Continental’s shares rose 9.3% in Frankfurt today. However, its stock is still down more than a fifth this year.
If you stuck around to the end of Friday’s show you saw we had a teaser for our BYD Shark video that we posted over the weekend. So, if you didn’t check it out already, you can learn more about the plug-in hybrid pickup truck right now on our website and YouTube channel. But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.
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It’s interesting that Tesla shares are up sharply, probably mostly because of Elon being in bed with Trump. The Tesla dealer near me has a lot of unsold cars sitting there. The days inventory is 65 days, not bad compared to some other car companies, but high for Tesla. Maybe lucrative non-car things are expected.
Would be worthwhile if AAH could briefly discuss how the impending Trump tariffs, EVA subsidy termination and possible EPA restriction/outright abolishment of the EPA will affect emissions and climate warming.
Tesla has a few thing going the Q3 results including megapack sales, WeRobot event, a POTUS that actual can say the word Tesla, the ending of lawfare of judges against Elon Musk, the megapack factory in China, need for stable electricity at AI datacenters, all as some of the fundamentals. Then there is the momentum of the stock over the last few days as the stock skyrockets. Perhaps Moody’s can do something about Tesla’s credit rating based on measurements not how they feel.[Just the facts Mam just the facts] Now let’s see who is going “Bankwupt” Tesla or VW & GM & Ford & Stellantus or just a government bailout. Perhaps we will see who is in the Magnificent 7 in 2025
Time will tell how the Donald/Elon lovefest goes, but as was discussed in a recent AAH, Stellantis, VW, and Nissan all have major problems. It was interesting that Sandy M. hated his Wrangler 4xe, while they are selling fairly well. I didn’t quite understand Sandy’s issue with his driveway and the Wrangler.
I wonder just how much or how close Musk will be with the new Trump admin, for on would of the national news shows yesterday, it mentioned that with his SpaceX so heavily invested with NASA, it may be considered a conflict of interest for him to actual hold a cabinet seat. Perhaps he may be a consultant, or hold some other high and influential post within the new administration?
The fact that companies like BYD and others are growing in sells EVs around the would, only shows that tariffs keeping Chinese companies out of western markets, as well as ending incentives to build EVs in those countries, will not keep them from expanding their reach globally. If local countries take the stands to just lock them out and simply stick to building more advance ICE vehicles, be they hybrids or PHEVs, they may find themselves behind the rest of the world technologically. Take the US for example, during the current election, there was so much talk about EVs will take away good jobs that build ICE vehicles. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not taking sides in any political position or suggesting that the slowing what was said during the election was not the right move. Stopping that “push” to transition or the California mandates, may may keep ICE vehicles around longer and it doesn’t mean that countries like the US won’t get there. Yet, with that tech progressing so quickly, how far behind would countries be from the rest of the world should they pause/slow that development up now?!
Something simple like over the air updates, with is associated with EVs and doesn’t necessarily mean that tech can’t be applied to ICE vehicles, but nothing like that was never used, for the most part, until Tesla. What part of the tech that was being developed for EVs will continue, or should continue, since they weren’t needed for ICE vehicles? Chinese companies are/will still be building more vehicles then their market can handle and there are other markets that would love to have their low cost EVs, so their technical push will continue. It is already said, arguably, that western countries/companies are behind the Chinese, so if it takes 5, 10, 15 or 20 years to get where they are now, where will they be?
From the campaign trail it seems musk will be in a figure head consulting role for “cost cutting” measures. Musk himself stated that he is targeting eliminating 2T in yearly government expense.
My guess is that Musk is in line to sell AI tech to the US Government through his “relationship”. The easiest way to cut government waste is to have disparate systems speaking to each other. Guess what AI does and Guess what Musk has been tasked to do by Tesla? At the same time AI will likely eliminate a ton of jobs that exist just to shuffle one piece of paper from box A to box B. Not that those people don’t work hard, just that those people are using antiquated systems of working that the private sector has long since abandoned in the name of productivity.