AD #3932 – EV Sales Forecasts Lowered as Trump Wins; Lucid’s Rawlinson Makes More Money Than GM’s Barra; China SSB To Drop Anode, Separator

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

EV SALES FORECASTS LOWERED AS TRUMP WINS
As we talked about yesterday, Donald Trump’s re-election could have a big impact on the auto industry, especially electric cars. Trump has promised to end EV subsidies and is also likely to roll back fuel economy and emission requirements. So forecasters are lowering their outlook for sales of EVs. GlobalData is now projecting that EV market share in the U.S. will reach 28% in 2030, down from its previous forecast of 33%. And that could hurt automakers’ bottom lines. The auto industry has already committed $129 billion to EVs through 2027 in North America. AlixPartners says that investment could now be “at risk” if fuel economy rules are softened and EV subsidies are eliminated. Automakers will likely pivot to produce more PHEVs and EREVs in their plants, instead of pure electrics. But they’ll still take a financial hit. However, we still don’t know exactly what Trump will do. And to get some idea, check out yesterday’s Autoline After Hours with Sandy Munro, where he gave us his thoughts on what might happen with Trump in the White House and Elon Musk as an advisor.  

RECORD EVs COMING OFF LEASE
Speaking of EVs, there could be a lot of great deals for used ones in the next couple of years because of a surge of EVs coming off lease. JD Power is forecasting that returning EV lease volumes will increase 230% in 2026. And that’s because EV lease volumes shot up 355% in 2023 and they’re up another 88% in the first nine-months of this year. That growth is thanks to the IRA loophole that allows all EVs to qualify for the full $7,500 tax credit as long as they’re leased. Last year, 46% of EV sales at franchised dealers were leased and this year it’s at 30%. And while used EV volumes are expected to surge, it’s the opposite for gas-powered vehicles. JD Power expects there to be a shortage of used ICE vehicles next year and in 2026 because ICE leases are below pre-pandemic levels. Last year, 2.4 million ICE vehicles were leased but before Covid the average was 3 million vehicles a year.

JLR REPORTS HIGHER SALES & PROFITS
JLR, Lucid and Rivian posted their third quarter earnings and for the most part the numbers aren’t very good. JLR sold 109,000 vehicles, up 29%, and yet its revenue fell more than 5% to $8.4 billion. Its pre-tax profit fell 10% to $515 million, but the company reported that its net profit hit $1.4 billion, up 25% for the first half of its fiscal year. 

RIVIAN PARES LOSSES, SIGNS 4695 BATTERY DEAL WITH LG
Rivian sold just over 10,000 vehicles in the third quarter, down more than 35% from a year ago. That dropped its revenue by more than 34% to $874 million. And though it posted an operating loss and a net loss of $1.1 billion, that was about $300 million better than last year. Rivian ended the quarter with $6.7 billion in cash on hand, including $1 billion from Volkswagen which is buying its electronic architecture. It also announced a deal to get 4695 cylindrical battery cells from LG Energy Solution that will be made at a plant in Arizona and go into Rivian’s R2 models. 

LUCID’S LOSSES DEEPEN
And finally, Lucid saw its sales jump over 90% in the quarter, delivering 2,781 cars to customers. Its revenue came in at $200 million, up 45%. But it posted an operating loss of $770 million, which was $17 million worse than last year. And its net loss of $949 million was more than $300 million worse. 

  

LUCID’S RAWLINSON MAKES MORE MONEY THAN GM’S BARRA
Despite all the red ink at Lucid, did you know that the company’s CEO Peter Rawlinson is paid more than GM CEO Mary Barra? Automotive News reports that last year Rawlinson made $30.1 million in total compensation, while Barra made $26 million. In fact, Rawlinson was the highest compensated CEO of any automaker outside of Elon Musk. But the highest paid exec in the auto industry is Craig Arnold, the CEO of the supplier Eaton. He made over $58 million last year, more than twice as much as he made the year before.

STELLANTIS PARTNERS WITH INFINEON FOR CHIPS
Stellantis announced that it’s going to work with Infineon on parts of the electrical architecture for its future EVs. Specifically, it wants to replace the traditional fuses used in cars with Infineon’s smart power switches because they reduce wiring and will allow Stellantis to implement what it calls intelligent power network management. The automaker is also developing standardized power modules, which will be supported by silicon carbide semiconductor chips from Infineon, while its microcontrollers will be used in Stellantis’ zonal architecture. And lastly, they’ll work together on the power system for software defined vehicles. As we saw by how badly automakers were impacted during the chip shortage, they rely heavily on the producers of semiconductors, which is part of the reason Stellantis formed this partnership. And the earlier you can bring them in on the product development process, the better.

AUDI DROPS 4 RINGS FOR NEW BRAND IN CHINA
Here’s what an Audi looks like without the four rings. The German automaker and its joint venture partner SAIC are launching a new EV brand in China, called AUDI, spelled in all caps and without the rings. They’re planning to launch at least three models on a China-specific architecture called Advanced Digitized Platform and this concept, called the AUDI E, is a preview of the production versions that are supposed to start launching in the middle of next year. The EVs will feature an 800-volt electric architecture, large display screens, new interior tech and automated driving. Who knows exactly how the vehicles will be set up, but the AUDI E Concept comes with a 100-kWh battery pack that returns an estimated 700 kilometers or about 435 miles of range as well as two electric motors that produce over 760 horsepower and provide a 0-100 km/h time of 3.6 seconds. Let us know what you think in the comments. 

CHINA SOLID STATE BATTERY TO DROP ANODE, SEPARATOR
Battery startup Talent New Energy and Chinese automaker Changan are collaborating to bring solid-state batteries to the market. They plan to start validation in 2026 of vehicles with semi solid-state batteries, which removes the separator and some of the liquid electrolyte in the cell. Then they want to move to mass production of full solid-state batteries, which have no liquid electrolyte, in 2027 and finally they hope to come up with a way to remove the anode completely, which is all about making it easier and cheaper to make batteries. While another major advantage of solid-state batteries is high energy density. There’s several automakers in China claiming they’ll launch EVs with solid-state batteries soon, but who knows how many and when we’ll see them because the biggest hurdle has been trying to make them affordably in large volumes.

CHINA CAR SALES UP STRONG IN OCTOBER
Thanks to a cash-for-clunkers like program, car sales were strong in China last month. According to the China Passenger Car Association, automakers sold nearly 2.4 million passenger vehicles in October, up 11% from a year ago. And new energy vehicles, which includes BEVs, PHEVs and EREVs, accounted for 53% of total sales. China provides buyers about $2,800 for scrapping their old vehicle and purchasing an EV. In addition to that, most provinces provide their own incentives for scrapping vehicles. Through October, automakers have sold 17.8 million passenger vehicles in China, which is 3.2% higher than last year.

BORGWARNER NAMES FADOOL TO CEO
The supplier BorgWarner is getting a new leader. President and CEO, Frederic Lissalde, is retiring and he’ll be replaced by Joseph Fadool, who’s currently BorgWarner’s VP and Chief Operating Officer. Fadool will take over the top spot in February 2025 and Lissalde will remain as advisor to help with the transition until August of 2025.

But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Please like and subscribe if you’re not already and I hope you have a great weekend. Also, as a thank you for sticking around to the very end, here’s a teaser for a video we’ll be posting on this weekend, so stay tuned for that.