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Runtime: 11:04
0:00 U.S. EV Effort Suffers Setback
1:45 U.S. August Sales Up Strongly, Probably
3:16 Germany in Industrial Decline?
4:02 India Says No EV Incentives Needed
5:07 Why Public Chargers Never Hit Peak Output
6:07 Tesla to Launch FSD in China, EU
6:31 Volvo, Geely Benefit from Shared Platform
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
U.S. EV EFFORT SUFFERS SETBACK
We start out today’s show with a big setback in the U.S. effort to become self-sufficient in securing lithium. We’ve been following the crazy decline of lithium because a big part of it is caused by the drop in EV demand since lithium is a key ingredient in batteries. Prices are down 83% in the last year alone. And one company seems to really be struggling with that decline. U.S.-based Piedmont Lithium laid off a third of its workforce earlier this year, last month it canceled a planned project in Tennessee and now it’s pulling an application for a government loan. The company says it’s making the move partly because of high costs associated with the loan process and hopes to refile the application at some point in the future. But Piedmont only has one source of revenue as a minority investor in a Canadian lithium mine. It’s also a shareholder in a mining project in Ghana, but it was going to use that to supply its Tennessee site, so now it’s trying to sell off its share of the lithium. And the company has plans to build a mine in North Carolina, which it recently said it would expand to include two refineries. But the loan it just pulled out of was supposed to help fund the site and any expansion there requires a zoning permit, which won’t happen until next year at the earliest. The U.S. wants to be a source for more of the materials needed to make electric cars, but the EV slowdown could put its self sufficiency in jeopardy.
U.S. AUGUST SALES UP STRONG, PROBABLY
How did sales of new cars go last month in the U.S. market? It’s kind of hard to tell right now because so far only 6 automakers reported their sales–most of the Japanese OEMs, plus Hyundai, Kia and Ford. The rest of them only report on a quarterly basis. Moreover, there were more selling days in August this year compared to last year. So, you should get more sales. But the daily selling rate, or DSR, can provide more clarity. It determines how many cars were sold on each sales day. For example, Toyota reported an overall sales increase of 1.9%. But on a daily selling rate basis, its sales were actually down 1.8%. However, not every automaker breaks out its sales on a DSR basis, so let’s look at the total numbers, which are really good. Ford was up 13%. The Hyundai Group, including Kia and Genesis was up 12.7%. Honda, including Acura, was up an impressive 25%. while Subaru was up 11.8%, followed by Mazda which was up a whopping 36.7%. Overall this group was up 12.6%, but analysts were actually expecting the total market to be up 7%, so some automakers, like Stellantis and Nissan, probably didn’t do that well.
GERMANY IN INDUSTRIAL DECLINE?
The news coming out of Germany this week was not very comforting. We’ve been reporting how VW could close a couple of assembly plants in its home market for the first time in its history. Now, the chairman of Daimler Truck says the company has to adapt to a slowdown in commercial truck sales. And in China, customers are losing interest in Porsche, whose sales are down 33% there this year. That’s a real danger sign for such an iconic brand. Put it all together and Bloomberg says that this is a sign of Germany’s industrial decline. Let’s hope they’re wrong. But one thing’s for sure. The German auto industry is going to have to take drastic action if it wants to remain globally competitive.
INDIA SAYS NO EV INCENTIVES NEEDED
While countries like Germany saw EV sales collapse after it ended subsidies for purchasing an EV, India says it no longer needs them. India’s Federal Road Minister says that falling battery prices, increased demand and higher inventory of EVs, makes them more competitive, so they no longer need subsidies. But incentives have helped the EV market grow. India currently taxes EVs at 5%, while ICE powered vehicles have taxes as high as 48%. Last year, electric scooter and bike sales were up 40% and electric vehicle sales were up 70% in India. And that compares to less than 10% growth for the overall market.
WHY PUBLIC EV CHARGERS NEVER HIT PEAK
Public EV chargers in the U.S. don’t charge as fast as promised. According to Stable Auto, public chargers that are rated at speeds of 100-kW or more are only providing an average of 52-kW. Here’s some of the reasons for it. Charging networks will throttle chargers when the grid is overworked and to prevent cables from overheating. Many stations also split power between vehicles, allowing them to install more chargers with the same electricity, but that lowers the charging speed. The vehicles themselves play a role. Of the 55 EVs now available in the U.S., half charge above 200-kW and only five can charge at 350-kW. Temperature impacts how fast EVs charge as well, so automakers program the vehicle to charge slower at extreme temperatures. And charging also slows when the battery is almost full to prevent overheating.
TESLA TO LAUNCH FSD IN CHINA, EU
Here’s some good news for Tesla. The company announced that it plans to launch its Full Self Driving driver assistance feature in China and Europe in the first quarter of next year, pending approval from regulators. Tesla’s shares were up 2.5% on the news, because if Tesla does get approval for FSD, it’s going to see a nice jump in revenue.
VOLVO, GEELY BENEFIT FROM SHARED PLATFORM
Volvo has been dropping a ton of information on the auto industry over the last two days. So, let’s dive in. It’s no longer going for an EV-only lineup. It expects 50-60% PHEV and BEV by 2025 and 90-100% by 2030, leaving the last 10% for mild hybrids, only if they’re needed. It’s lowering its earnings forecast for the next few years as well. But hopes to start making that up in the years after with new products. And it won’t be long before the new XC90 joins the lineup. It gets a light refresh on the exterior and the interior has a bigger screen that runs off the same new software found in the EX30 and EX90. The layout of the screen and how it operates is also different and those features will be offered as an over-the-air update to owners with vehicles that go as far back as 2020. Not stopping there, Volvo revealed that all future electric cars will be based on the same core systems. It’s a single tech and software base that contains all modules and functionalities of the vehicle. It will debut in the newest evolution of Geely’s EV architecture, called SPA 3. An all-electric version of the S90 sedan and an upcoming EX60 will use this platform. Volvo says it will be much more capable than the current SPA 2 and a lot of that expanded capability comes from a bigger partnership with NVIDIA. It announced that those future vehicles will use its centralized computing system called DRIVE Thor that can handle four times the operations as the system that just launched in the EX90.
What makes an old car a classic car? What I think is a classic, you might think is a piece of junk. And what someone thought was a classic decades ago might not interest anyone anymore. Anyway that’s going to be the topic on Autoline After Hours at 3PM EST today. And you can look forward to some good arguments. We’ll have Jiyan Cadiz from Hagerty and Doron Levine from Sirius XM radio joining John and Gary. So we expect to see a lively chat room when the opinions start flying.
But that brings us to the end of today’s show. I hope to see you later.
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The more I learn about EVs the less desirable they appear to me. Things keep coming to the surface like optimal battery usage is between the 20-80% range leaving you with really only 60% off the published range. Then stories like today where charging times (which are a big concern) are hampered even more by chargers that are installed on the cheap so they cannot provide full capacity. Which will increase recharging times. The studies that show either long waits or damaged/broken chargers being quite high. Now with the decline I’m sure that has to be affecting resale values too. Good thing lots are shifting to develop hybrids. Guess the claim to have no more ICE engines in development was a mistake.
The state of trqcrion battery charge of EV/PHEV is also a big factor in charging speeds. Think of it as a parking lot that it is almost full and it takes longer to find a spot. Similar happens to the chemistry change as the battery fills or gets charged.
Let me see if I’ve got this straight: “India currently taxes EVs at 5%, while ICE powered vehicles have taxes as high as 48%.” But they don’t need to subsidize EVs to make them sell. Hmm; ” If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck!”
The old what is a classic car discussion. A lot of states legally define a classic car as older than 25 years old to qualify for historic/classic plates. That means that a 1999 model year car would legally be a classic. The general public at large however would question if a 1999 Ford Contour is a classic. Most question if a 1984 buick Century is a classic despite being 40 years old. However, those same persons would say that a 1984 Porsche Targa is a classic even though it is the same age and way easier to find for sale these days compared to a 1984 Buick Century which are few and far between to find these days.
To me the definition of a classic is likely very generational as it depends on what cars were readily available new/used when someone was growing up. Boomers will likely put classic cars squarely in the muscle car era that they grew up in and dip their toe into the pre-muscle car era. Gen X will likely have a mix of muscle car and rad era cars as that was what was around when they grew up. Millenials will likely be in the rad era and beyond with a nod to the muscle cars because of all the TV shows that always feature a muscle car. Gen Z really could care less right now, but eventually they will consider todays BEVs classics and dip their toe into the rad era as those are rapidly gaining popularity with millenials and gen z. Gen Z will likely classify muscle cars as antiques. Just my thoughts.
My thoughts on EVs haven’t changed much over the last few years. To me, they are a great option for those with home charging, driven within range of the home charging. Otherwise, there are a lot of compromises. Public charging is not only unreliable, but makes fuel cost equal to driving an efficient gas burner. Tesla charging is more reliable, but much more expensive than home charging, unless you are one of those who got in on “free charging for life” a few years ago.
I’m kind of confused about Volvo. I thought they bought, or created Polestar to be their EV sub-brand, but I guess not. Admittedly, I haven’t followed Volvo too closely since they quit making rear drive station wagons.
It’s no surprise that VW is losing sales and market share in China, not only to Chinese companies, but to others. When I was in Shanghai in 1994, they practically owned the Chinese market. They’d have no place to go but down.
Regarding the “classic car” market, most collectors seem to go after what they wanted when in their teens and 20s, but couldn’t afford. A few years ago, that was ’55-’57 Chevys. More recently, it has been ’60s and early ’70s “muscle cars,” and some others of that era. The people who craved 1930s cars as young adults are all dead, so some beautiful cars of that era are worth less in today’s market than a 1969 Road Runner, a cool, but really very ordinary car.
I’d have to agree the general term for classic car is reserved for anything more than 25 years old. However, I tend to also believe that the vehicle has to (then or now) have had some desirability to it. Otherwise it may be referred to as a classic in an ironic manner. Like if you pull up to the local car show in a 1985 Buick Century people would wonder why and say, “Well it’s a classic”. Nothing wrong with preserving an old car. The one Grandma bought new drove it for 15 years putting a whole 18,000 miles on then let it sit idle for another 10 years before passing away. So, make sure you convince grandma to make that last vehicle is a Camaro or Mustang or at least something rare.
When I was in high school, I would have never guessed the old 1970s square body Chevy trucks would ever be desirable.
I find it interesting that you can still get an “antique” plate for a 25 year old car, at least in Indiana. When I was a kid, a 25 year old car WAS an old car. Today, a 25 year old car is, well, just a car.
Except for safety and gas mileage, a 1955 Chevy is little worse as a transportation appliance than much more recent cars, even now. On the other hand, a 25 year old car in 1955 was a Model A, with a top speed of about 45-50 mph and mechanical brakes. Not many Model As were in regular use in 1955, but a lot of 25 year old Camrys and Impalas, and S10 pickups are in regular use now.
I would say the term” Collector Car” would be better than “Classic” It covers more types of cars and personal interests.
Victor, exactly
Victor- That makes sense. Classic which just refers to its age which I also agree with Kit that 25 years today isnt the same as it once was. When I was in high school in the early 80s a classic was mid 50s. And that seemed like a really old car. You had a hard time selling anything with over 100k miles as that was considered the lifespan of a car. Today I look at a 1999 vehicle and I don’t consider it a classic. But a 99 vehicle can easily achieve 200k miles and just doesn’t seem to have the gap that they used to.
So back to the term Collectable. That fits my description of not only old but also desirable. Knowing what’s going to be desirable in 25 years is the hard part. Like Corvette almost is always a good bet but the 1980’s was not a good time and they can be had dirt cheap now. So maybe buying them now might be a good investment as in 20 more years they might become a collectable. Mustang II was another example where a classic Mustang almost is always a collectable but that model not so much. The rarer the better so a high powered car special ordered with a combination that makes it even more rare is key. But today its hard to order a car with specific options so the collectables of tomorrow will be just limited production runs of whatever.
Mustang II sold well when new, but I never see them at car shows. All of them must have been worn out, rusted out, and scrapped.
Kit- I see them around at shows once in a while and the ones I do see have been pretty well restored, so they look good for their age. However, they don’t pull the money other Mustangs older or newer pull even in great shape. Not to say there isn’t a group that does like them and will even say they are attractive. However, the majority of people disagree even most Mustang fans consider that Pinto version a dud.
Lambo,
I kind of agree. The problem is that collectable and classic have different meanings to different people. Thus that means that all things are collectable and all things become classic with age. Some have more broad appeal than others, but all things are both collectable and classic. That is why you hear about people being upset with what they call “gate keepers” at “classic” car shows.
A Mustang 2 may not be something that the broad public desires, but there are people that collect and desire the mustang 2, particularly the king cobra variant. You mentioned the 1985 Buick Century. GM moved 470K of those in that single year. For 1985 that would be considered a highly desired car as it obviously had mass market appeal otherwise GM couldn’t move just under a half a million of them in a single year. There are people that collect those, particularly the GS version. So it is both desired and collectable, but a gate keeper would claim it is not worthy to attend a classic car show simply because they don’t like a 1985 Buick Century. Usually the gate keepers are a boomer firmly rooted in the muscle car or no car mantra.
To counter the gate keepers, a broad definition based on vehicle age is the only way to describe a classic. It takes out the personal bias of the gate keepers who deem a Mustang 2 not worthy simply because their personal bias doesn’t accept it. What the gate keepers have done though is give rise to an entire sub culture. Some examples of this are the radwood shows that got so popular Haggerty spent millions to buy the founders out. Now there is a malaise days car show dedicated to the cars that were around in the malaise era that gate keepers find unappealing. That is gaining massive traction. Then there is a smaller car show dedicated to classic GM FWD cars(think 1985 Buick Century) that is gaining traction due to the high number of people that own them. There are asian specific car events that have massive appeal because the gate keepers universally pan Honda Accords even though legions of people do not.
Then there are museums dedicated to cars that gate keepers find unappealing. One such example is the crazy 80s museum in dwight illinois which refuses to stock anything with mass market appeal like a mustang and chooses to show a Ford EXP over the Mustang. That museum is getting very popular now. There are many others like the lane auto museum which focuses on oddball cars that the gate keepers would never find appealing even though most are from the 50s/60s. What they have found is that people are simply tired of seeing anything muscle car as that is what you see all the time. They are at every car show, every TV show, movies, everywhere you look you stumble on some muscle car. Muscle cars have attained the Mariah Carey Christmas song status…way way way overplayed and we are all tired of seeing them every single year. So they find the market niche that makes them stand out which are exactly cars that gate keepers would not want at their car show. The neat thing about something like Woodward Dream cruise or the Hines Drive cruise the following weekend is that they don’t gate keep and you can see a variety of cars at those events. After attending all the WWDC events, I can tell you that a 1978 Chevrolet Chevette stands out from the crowd way more than a 1978 Corvette with a bunch of the typical doo dads and nick nacks bolted onto it.
So, is a 1978 Chevette collectable? A Classic? Neither? Both? It is certainly a welcome thing to see at WWDC over the sea of chargers/challengers/mustangs/camaros/chevelles/road runners/tri five chevy/blah blah blah.
It would be refreshing to see a Chevette, or a Citation at a show. I haven’t seen either in years, but I see an Omni GLH at local shows occasionally.
Merkur- Yep I agree and I even feel that way as I walk around many car shows.. Its Mustang, Chevelle, 442, Camaro, and I think, yep seen it. Which is why when I was trying to decide which kit car to build I wanted something rare. You always see the A/C Cobra’s and we have 2 in the family and a Daytona. So I picked the 2001 Lamborghini Diablo. Its not an easy build but I wanted something different.
I enjoy seeing the weird and unusual at car shows. Recently saw a Vega with the engine moved to the rear seat. Its those types of builds that draw my attention. I love the classic muscle cars but once you seen one you have seen half the car show I seek out the unique and weird.
What is the latest news regarding the use of Sodium in automotive battery development? I’m sure you know that Lithium battery fires cause a Major safety problem and should be banned from the automotive industry applications. I will not move over to electric power because of the safety concern.
Please give me an update. Thank you