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Runtime: 13:16
0:00 46% of EV Owners Want to Go Back to ICE
1:28 China EV Investors Shrug Off EU Tariffs
2:16 France Calls for More China Tariffs
3:03 Big Oil & Corn Join Forces to Oppose EV Regs
4:21 Honda Converts Kei Van to Pure EV
5:30 Honda & Mitsubishi Offer Battery Lease
6:50 Chinese Brands Outsell American Brands
7:38 Alpine Unleashes EV Hot Hatch
8:38 Ford Skunkworks Up to 300 Employees
9:32 BMW Refreshes 2 Series Coupe
10:18 BYD Has the Most Employees on Payroll
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46% OF EV OWNERS WANT TO GO BACK TO ICE
Uh-oh, this is not a good sign for electric vehicles. A new survey from McKinsey, found that 46% of EV owners in the U.S. say they will dump their EV and go back to ICE for their next purchase. Mainly, they’re unhappy with the charging infrastructure, the high cost of ownership and not being able to easily travel long distances. But it’s not just the U.S., 29% of EV owners globally say they want to switch back to an ICE car. Only 9% of people surveyed around the world think the charging infrastructure is adequate. And 21% of global respondents say they’ll never purchase an EV. But it’s not all doom and gloom. 38% of ICE owners say they intend to buy BEV or PHEV for their next purchase, which is up 1% from 2022.
BOSCH ON AAH
By the way, BEVs, PHEVs, hybrids, fuel cells and ICEs are going to be the topics on Autoline After Hours today. We’ve got Mohammed Fatouraie, the head of engineering for Bosch North America, coming on the show today. And Bosch is ready to go whichever way their customers tell them to go. So what are automakers telling Bosch they want? Tune in to find out when the show goes live on the Autoline website and our YouTube channel.
CHINA EV INVESTORS SHRUG OFF EU TARIFFS
As we reported yesterday, the EU slapped higher tariffs on imported Chinese cars. But investors shrugged off the news. Shares of BYD were up 8.8%. Leapmotor and Geely were up 4%. That’s because investors believe those companies can easily absorb the tariffs and continue to grow in the European market. BYD could pivot to plug-in hybrids because the new tariffs only apply to pure BEVs. Chinese automakers can also build cars in Europe to avoid the tariffs, and some are already building plants there. But investors worry that SAIC will be hurt because it was hit with the highest tariffs of all, 38.1%. Its shares fell 3% on the news.
FRANCE CALLS FOR MORE CHINA TARIFFS
Meanwhile, the Chinese government is really mad about the tariffs. It wants the EU to drop them immediately, and European automakers worry that China will retaliate against them. Even so, the situation could heat up even more. France is calling for tariffs on other Chinese-made goods, not just electric cars. It worries that excess manufacturing capacity in China will be directed towards Europe, which already accounts for one-third of all Chinese EV exports. France’s Finance Minister says the EU needs to re-establish the balance of power with China, and if the EU does add more tariffs, we could have a full blown trade war.
BIG OIL & CORN JOIN FORCES TO OPPOSE EV REGS
Opponents to the EPA’s new fuel economy rules just received more support with two unlikely rivals joining to fight them. Oil and ethanol groups are filling petitions to challenge the new standards in court. They say the agency overstepped its authority and that it’s unlawful to force consumers to purchase EVs. The rules have already faced pushback from the auto industry and car dealers and in April, Republican attorney generals in 25 states sued the EPA to block the rules from going into effect. The EPA already scaled back its original proposal because of the pushback. At first it wanted to cut tailpipe emissions 56% by 2032, but it reduced that to 49% in its final rule. However, opponents say that’s effectively an EV mandate that will require 56% of new car sales in 2032 to be all electric.
HONDA CONVERTS K-VAN TO EV
Honda is converting one of its gas-powered kei vans to pure electric. The N-VAN e: launches in about a month in Japan for both commercial and personal use. Thanks to a compact battery pack and no need to worry about an engine or exhaust, the electric version actually has more cargo space than the gas van. There’s four versions available with seating for 1 to 4 people. Honda does not give the motor output or the size of the battery. But it does say it will fully charge in 4.5 hours at 6 kW or in 30 minutes at 50 kW. That would put it at a 25-27 kWh battery pack, which sounds about right for its 245 kilometer or 152 mile WLTP range. That battery can also be used as a mobile power device with up to 1,500 watts of output or vehicle to home functions with its bidirectional charging capabilities. Prices range from about $15,500 to $18,500, But there is a way to get it even cheaper.
HONDA & MITSUBISHI OFFER EV BATTERY LEASE
However, that requires me to first jump to our next story about a new joint venture established between Honda and Mitsubishi Corporation, the parent company of Mitsubishi Motors – the car company. The new JV is called ALTNA and it’s all about making it easier for people to switch to electric cars. Part of that includes a new battery leasing option, which is first available on the new N-VAN e:. The option allows ALTNA to keep total ownership of the battery, so it can keep track of usage and health. But it also requires you return the car when the lease is up, which is 6 years or that can be extended. The benefit for ALTNA is that it can do whatever it wants with the car after the lease, which will include building 2nd life storage systems with batteries that are no longer suitable for automotive use. The benefit for you is a cheaper lease. The most basic package starts at about $180 a month, but you have to cover taxes, fees and maintenance. Or for roughly $290 a month ALTNA will take care of everything. Beyond battery leasing, ALTNA will also develop a battery recycling business and a division to leverage its bidirectional charging capabilities.
CHINESE BRANDS OUTSELL AMERICAN ONES
Chinese automakers outsold American brands globally for the first-time last year. According to JATO Dynamics, Chinese carmakers sold 13.4 million passenger vehicles compared to 11.9 million for American brands last year. Chinese brands now account for 18% of the global market while American brands control 15%. Japanese car companies maintained the number one spot with more than 23 million passenger cars sold or nearly 30% of the market. European brands are number two, with a 25% share. And overall, more than 78 million passenger vehicles were sold last year globally, which is a 10% gain from 2022.
ALPINE UNLEASHES EV HOT HATCH
When Renault revived Alpine with the launch of the A110, we expected it to be a brand for limited production sports cars. But it looks like Alpine has bigger plans. It just launched the A290, an all-electric hot hatch. This is its version of the Renault 5, but the Alpine offers two performance levels, 180 horsepower, or 220 hp, which can accelerate the car to 100 km/h in 6.5 seconds. The base model, priced at $41,000 comes with a 52 kWh battery pack that delivers 380 kilometers, or 236 miles of WLTP range. Obviously, Alpine is going for higher sales by offering a hatchback, and we wouldn’t be at all surprised to see it extend its model range in the future. Alpine’s goal is to hit $8 billion a year in sales by the end of the decade.
FORD SKUNKWORKS UP TO 300 ENGINEERS
We’ve got more info on Ford’s skunkworks team in California that’s developing low cost EVs. TechCrunch did some slick detective work on LinkedIn and found that Ford hired engineers from Rivian, Tesla, Canoo, Lucid, Apple, and even some aerodynamicists from Formula One. It also picked up some people from VTOL startups Joby, Archer and Supernal. There are now 300 people in the group, called Ford Advanced EV, including 100 engineers from a company called Auto Motive Power, or AMP, which Ford bought last year. The California company has a complete energy management system for EVs, including bi-directional charging. Ford is using the skunkworks to move far faster in developing EVs than its traditional operations could deliver.
BMW REFRESHES 2 SERIES COUPE
BMW revealed the refreshed 2 Series Coupe. Styling is not all that different and the engines are a carry over from the previous year. The biggest change is to the interior where a long, thin display stretches across the dash. The updates for the performance M2 are also pretty subtle, but its 3.0L twin-turbo in-line 6-cylinder engine does get about a 20 horsepower bump, which shaves a tenth of a seconds off its 0-60 time, which is 3.9 seconds for the automatic and 4.1 seconds for the manual. In the U.S. the 2 Series Coupe starts at just over $40,000, including destination charges, while the M2 starts at $66,000.
BYD HAS THE MOST EMPLOYEES ON PAYROLL
Which automaker has the most employees on the payroll? In recent times, it was always Volkswagen, which has 684,000 people making cars and parts for the company. But BYD has blown past those numbers. It has over 703,000 people on the payroll, thanks to its high level of vertical integration. It makes just about everything in-house. That’s some of the fascinating insight in the Autoline Industry Report Card. And we’ve got all the raw data in the report available for sale on the Autoline website now for only $45.
And that’s a wrap for today’s show. But hopefully I get to see you for the live show later today.
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Bob Wilson says
“. . . according to S&P Global Mobility’s Automotive Loyalty Awards. Tesla TSLA, -0.26% claimed higher owner loyalty than any other car brand, repeating its win from last year.Mar 4, 2024″
I remember postings about this subject,”Tesl owner loyalty” AD #3598, AD #3356
Almemarle says
I do not believe the statistic about 46% of EV owners going back to ICE is credible. I know of at least a dozen people who have EVs, and none of them want to go back to ICE. I realize mine is not a scientific survey but I can’t wrap my head around the difference. No question there are issues, it is early days.
DailyDriver says
The 46% EV dropout rate is easily believable. I mean it would take just one incident of getting stranded in a strange area with a dead battery, waiting for a tow, to ramp up range anxiety and change someone’s mind. Or a huge repair bill, insurance rates, collision repair price shock, massive depreciation, massive price drops the week after you buy one. Any one incident could do it.
Norm T says
I wish the media would leave EV owners alone. Let us be smug rolling by in near silence knowing it only cost us .80 cents to go 40 miles to your $3.50 a gallon.
Lambo2015 says
Norm- I don’t think these surveys are done to disparage EV owners. I believe there is a lot of uncertainty in the automotive industry right now and automakers are trying desperately to make sure they have vehicles to not only meet federal regulations but also give the buying public what it wants. If this 46% statement is true, it will have a huge impact on future product planning. We are already seeing lots of OEMs shifting toward a more hybrid offerings and pulling back on the EV line-ups.
The issue with EVs are they can be a wonderful vehicle for people with a particular lifestyle and how they use it. However, that is a small percentage of the population and is why a 100% replacement to ICE was a failure idea from the start. It’s a great supplement for those people that it works for. Just like a battery is a great supplement to an ICE engine. Finding the proper balance is key hence the surveys.
Let’s be honest, there are a lot of people that will buy cars without any research. They’ll go in like the looks the color and price and buy it. Then find out their insurance is twice as much or that they don’t really have a good place to charge it. Or that it consumes twice as much gas then their previous vehicle. 46% seems on the high side but buyer remorse for some, isn’t saying you made a bad decision. It’s saying they didn’t do their research.
Albemarle says
Norm:
Gas is double that price in places in Canada.
We pay 2.8 ¢ / kWh to charge the car (overnight). That works out 3/4 ¢ Canadian per mile for us. Essentially, fuel is free. Battery is still at 95% after 7 years. We do pay to have our snow tires put on and off.
Kit Gerhart says
I’d think the EV owners going back to gas would fall into two groups, those without home charging thinking that public charging would work for everything, and those who found that EVs are not that great for road trips. I wouldn’t think that would be anywhere near 46%. The few EV buyers I know did their homework, and knew the advantages, and disadvantages of EVs.
Kit Gerhart says
Albemarle, wow, you have cheap electricity. It’s 11-13 cents / kWh where I am. Gas is now ~$3.25. Still, with home charging, it would cost about half as much per mile to drive an efficient EV, as to drive an efficient hybrid, like Camry or Accord. With most public charging, the hybrid would be a little cheaper per mile.
Albemarle says
Ontario Hydro just introduced this plan. 2.8¢ from 11p to 7a, 28¢ from 4p to 9p and 11¢ rest of time. Weekends we get no 28¢ time. Obviously during the week, we run as little as possible from 4 to 9. Save the oven dinners for the weekend. It’s a pain but worth it for us.
Kit Gerhart says
You defininltely don’t want to charge your car between 4 and 9, or run an electric dryer or use a lot of hot water.
Bob Wilson says
Watching the Tesla stock holder meeting. I understand Elon’s pay package was approved, the second time, along with the incorporation move from Delaware to Texas.
It might be interesting to hear from “McKinsey, found that 46% of EV owners in the U.S. say they will dump their EV and go back to ICE.” Ask them what they think about the vote versus their survey.
Kit Gerhart says
We live in a sick world, when one person gets a one time “paycheck” more than the GDP of more than half of the countries in the world.
I doubt that the Elon vote has much to do with people going from EVs to ICErs, but that 46% sounds highly suspicious.
Bob Wilson says
This isn’t happening, “a one time “paycheck”.
It is a performance based, stock option plan with a 5 year suspension on buying or selling. Actually, there were a series of stock options, eight(?). Regardless, the value of the stock options vary with the price of Tesla stock and I’ve seen a range of claimed values from under $50 B to $70 B.
Elon gets a paycheck for the minimum mount the law allows. Some obscure regulation requires he get a regular paycheck. The stock option is not a paycheck and has a variable value based on stock prices when exercised.
Kit Gerhart says
Ok, I don’t fully understand what’s going on with Elon, but still, it is absurd. 50B is still more than the GDP of half the nations in the world. Yeah, if the stock crashes, it wouldn’t be worth that much.
If the 46% is even close to correct, a lot of people bought EVs without doing the most basic of homework.
Sean Wagner says
I tried finding the survey at McKinsey, but their EV landing site is hopelessly out of date, and my extended search didn’t deliver. The questions and target audience would probably be revealing.
As Bob Wilson wrote, it certainly doesn’t jive with results for customer loyalty from Tesla, which still is the leading brand in Europe and the US. That would mean terrible returns for some of the ‘competition’.
A little digging might be interesting.
Bob Wilson says
FYI, here is the press release from Tesla:
https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-releases-results-2024-annual-meeting-stockholders
Kit Gerhart says
Is there any way to know what percentage of shares were voted, and not voted by the retail stock holders? Are they automatically voted as the the board recommends, if they don’t vote? Are Elon Musk’s existing 20.5% of the stock voted?
Kit Gerhart says
Maybe the McKinsey survey audience was made up entirely of apartment dwellers without home charging.
Sean Wagner says
Off the top of my head, abstaining shares were voted no or nil. And Elon recused himself.
It’s really about honoring the scheme voted upon prior to the enterprise’s success, although I think the Delaware judge held that the board was beholden to Musk rather than accountable to shareholders.
Gordon Raboud says
This “survey” by McKenzie is in sharp contrast to the Canadian Automobile Association, CAA, survey where:
Largest-ever survey of Canadian EV drivers finds overwhelming majority would buy again…
“An overwhelming majority (97%) say they will purchase another EV when it comes time to replace their existing one.”
https://www.caa.ca/news/largest-ever-survey-of-canadian-ev-drivers-finds-overwhelming-majority-would-buy-again-but-many-still-worry-about-lack-of-public-charging/