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Runtime: 12:14
0:00 Average U.S. Car Now 12.6 Years Old
1:10 U.S. Auto Insurance Rates Soar
2:09 New China Import Tariff Could Hurt EU Automakers
3:19 EU Car Sales Up 12% In April
4:34 A Look Inside the Brains of The Tesla Cybertruck’s Battery
5:50 Ford F-150 Updates
8:22 Ford Tells Dealers to Halt EV Investments
9:14 BYD Launches Double-Decker Bus in London
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
AVERAGE U.S. CAR NOW 12.6 YEARS OLD
The average age of vehicles in the U.S. keeps getting older as more people hold onto the cars and trucks they’ve got instead of buying new ones. S&P Global says the average vehicle is now 12.6 years old, with pickup trucks at 14.2 years, passenger cars at 14 years, and utilities at 9.5 years. The reason pickups are the oldest is they’re designed to last longer and owners tend to keep them properly serviced, especially fleet owners. Pass cars are getting older because it’s a shrinking segment and there are just fewer new ones coming into the market. S&P Global says an older fleet should really help businesses that sell aftermarket parts and service cars. There are 286 million vehicles in operation in the U.S. About 1 out of 3 vehicles on the road are less than 6 years old, while 2 out of 3 are 6 to 14 years old, or even older.
U.S. AUTO INSURANCE RATES SOAR
One reason why new cars are becoming less affordable for many U.S. households is that auto insurance rates are soaring. They’re up 22% from a year ago and average $186 a month, which used to be about the same as a car payment in the pre-Covid era. There are several reasons why insurance rates are up. There’s a shortage of techs, so it takes longer to fix cars. And today’s cars have a lot of expensive sensors that add to repair bills. “A bumper is just a bumper – but a bumper full of sensors costs more to repair,” said Kristin Dziczek (Dee-check), a policy advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. By the way, we want to thank our viewer Bill Kaforey for suggesting we look into the impact of insurance rates. If you ever come across something you think we ought to report on, feel free to reach out and let us know about it.
NEW CHINA IMPORT TARIFF COULD HURT EU AUTOMAKERS
Now let’s move over to China, where the government is threatening to put a 25% import tariff on vehicles that come into the country with a 2.5-liter gasoline engine or bigger. Some experts see this as retaliation for the Biden Administration’s 100% tariff on imported Chinese EVs. But we see this as a threat to the European Union, which is considering putting 30% tariffs on Chinese cars. We think it looks like China is trying to get the EU to reconsider its tariff. European automakers–well, German automakers actually–are caught in the crosshairs of these tariff wars. China is their largest market. And while they make a lot of cars in China, they also export them from Germany and the U.S. For example, Mercedes-Benz and BMW export full size SUVs made in Alabama and South Carolina to China. China already has a 25% import tariff on any U.S. made vehicles, and a new 25% tariff on vehicles from Europe would really hurt their sales in China.
EU CAR SALES UP 12% IN APRIL
Speaking of Europe, automakers are super happy that new car sales came in strong in April. Sales shot up 12% to just over 1 million units. But there were also 2 extra selling days in April this year, so on a daily selling rate basis the increase was less than that. EVs grew faster than the overall market. They were up 14.4% to over 144,000 vehicles. In areas like Germany EV sales were flat, but that was made up by countries like France and Belgium where sales were up over 40%. Hybrid sales shot up 29%, and PHEVs were up 5.5%. Gas and diesel cars had 47% market share, which shows a real shift in the market. Before the emissions scandal, diesels alone accounted for half the European market.
A LOOK INSIDE THE BRAINS OF THE TESLA CYBERTRUCK’S BATTERY
Have you ever wondered what the physical differences are between a 400- and 800-volt electric vehicle? I think we’re getting a good look at that as we’ve followed along with Caresoft’s teardown of the Tesla Cybertruck. The team there is now down to the cell level in the battery pack, so you can clearly see the layout. And there’s already been a change to Tesla’s 4680 battery cells. The vent on the cell is now a small ball bearing that presumably pops out when there’s a problem and the plate around the bearing is formed and installed differently. Caresoft president Terry Woychowski speculates this could be one of the ways Tesla figured out how to improve manufacturing of the cells. But the real big changes we see are to the brains of the battery management system. Where the 400-volt Model Y from just a few years ago was still using older-school transformers and capacitors, the Cybertruck uses transformers that are much more power dense and also offer performance and production improvements. And it looks like Tesla did away with old-school capacitors altogether. We’ve just kind of scratched the surface of what we saw at Caresoft the other day, so we’ve posted a much more in-depth video if you’d like to see more.
FORD F-150 UPDATES
The reason I missed hosting a few days last week was because I was out driving the updated Ford F-150. And just as a general note, it really is amazing how far full-size pickup trucks have come in the last 20 years. They ride more like SUVs now than pickups, which makes it easier to understand why they’re popular with buyers that might not typically be a truck person. Much nicer interiors also help. In my opinion, Ram has the nicest truck interiors, while Ford seems to be sticking with a more utilitarian look with less soft-touch materials. But there is still an improvement and the F-150 now comes standard with 12-inch displays for the driver and infotainment system. Upgrades to the electronic architecture and a faster modem improves navigation, wi-fi and over-the-air updates as well. The new F-150 also gets Ford’s updated version of BlueCruise, which now includes lane repositioning when passing big trucks and assisted lane changes. It worked great on my drive, but it was mostly on straight sections of highway, so I never got to really push the system. Customers can activate BlueCruise for 3 years for $2,100 when they purchase the vehicle, then it’s $800/year or $75/month. If you’re looking to spot one of these new F-150’s out on the road, I’d say look at the headlights or taillights. Those are where the biggest differences are to me. You might also notice the new Ford logo, which is a little bit flatter than before and ditches the chrome. Or if you’re lucky, the owner will have opted for the new Pro Access Tailgate, which can open like a normal tailgate, but it also has a door in the middle that swings open as far as 100-degrees. It makes access to whatever you’ve got in the bed much easier, especially while towing, and Ford even put a detent on the door that helps stop it before it would hit the jack on a trailer. The Pro Access Tailgate is part of a $1,600 bed utility package. And speaking of pricing, starting prices for the new F-150 come in at just under $39,000 for a base XL and range all the way up to over $110,000 for the new Raptor R, including destination charges. More on that Raptor R tomorrow.
FORD TELLS DEALERS TO HALT EV INVESTMENTS
Speaking of Ford, it’s telling its dealers in the U.S. to halt EV investments at their stores. The automaker is making changes to its EV certification program after it held a meeting with 1,000 dealers across the country, who are concerned about the slowdown in EV demand. Automotive News reports that Ford plans to announce the changes next month. Dealers enrolled in the EV certification program were expected to complete EV charging requirements in the coming weeks, but now Ford is telling them to hold off until it announces the changes. Since Ford launched its dealer EV certification program, the slowdown in EV demand led it to delays in spending and postponing products. Ford expects to lose $5.5 billion on its EV business this year.
BYD LAUNCHES DOUBLE-DECKER BUS IN LONDON
The London Electric Vehicle Company, which makes the city’s iconic black cabs, has been owned by Chinese automaker Geely since 2012. And now another iconic vehicle on London’s roads could become Chinese. BYD wants to replace current diesel-powered red double-decker buses with its own double-decker electric bus and just launched its BD11 model at the London Bus Museum. I also find it a little funny how close that is to DB11, as in Aston Martin’s car. But the bus is powered by a 532-kWh battery, which provides a range of 640 kilometers or 400 miles. The company that operates double decker buses for London is reportedly on the verge of ordering 100 of the BD11. They cost 400,000 pounds which is 100,000 pounds cheaper than UK competitors. The BYD buses are made in China but the company says one-third of the components come from Europe.
And that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day.
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The Cybertruck battery teardown video was interesting. They have the design for manufacturing pretty well down, but serviceability? I guess it’s a ~$20K throw away battery.
I was surprised that they use transformers in the DC-DC converters. I would have expected “switching” converters. Maybe the oscillator/transformer/filter arrangement is more efficient, at least for the power requirements involved. The Cybertruck converters must run at higher frequency than the Model Y, to get by with the much smaller capacitors, unless they are some kind of higher tech caps.
Low power DC-DC converters don’t often use transformers but higher power do. They use an oscillator to convert the DC to AC at a reasonable high frequency and then use a transformer, often tuned, to boost or lower the voltage, finally rectifying the voltage back to DC. Since it can be done in two ways, I am confident they use the preferable system, not just the way social media experts say they should.
I never realized there were so many qualified engineers working out of their mother’s basement.
Yeah, I was thinking of low power DC-DC converters, like to drop 12v to 5v for digital electronics, etc. which are generally switching converters. My Toyota hybrid charges the 12v battery from the ~290v traction battery. I suppose it uses a converter with transformers.
The EVpocalypse continues to claim its victims. Ford lost $132k for every EV they managed to get some simp to buy this year and now they’re telling the 50% of dealers that remain in their EV program (started at 65% of Ford dealers but 15% dropped out) to stop EV investment spending. Now, seems to me that if those dealers had construction or other contracts lined up to meet Ford’s charger/equipment requirements, you can’t just say “time out” to all the contractors you’ve engaged with. There are legal obligations involved. Somebody’s going to get sued.
Anyway, more cash and company equity will burn on the EV altar as the true believers get a smack of reality and the DailyDriver is here for it, ha ha.
Considering my fleet in the driveway, I’m definitely not average. The average age of the vehicles here is 22. And that includes a “1” and doesn’t include my ’66 and ’67.
The age of trucks is very understandable. My Silverado is a ’00. I only drive it when I need to haul something, so it sees little use. That makes it easy to maintain and racks up a limited number of miles. Couple that will unbelievable parts availability on that model and there’s no reason to get anything newer till the wheels of this one fall off.
Ford made two mistakes, calling their electric 5-door a Mustang, and thinking there would be a huge market for electric pickup trucks. To me, they are making additional mistakes by dropping the good selling Escape, available as a decent hybrid, dropping the Edge, and dropping the Explorer hybrid, except as a police vehicle. For now, Ford needs more hybrids. The Maverick is great, for what it is, but they are dropping most of the rest of what they have.
OK, I’m not into marketing. Maybe it was a great idea for Ford to quit making cars, and maybe it’s a great idea to drop most of their crossovers too. We shall see.
Dford, people with ‘fleet’ such as yours are rare, cost of insurance is becoming a real consideration. Fewer vehicles, higher mileage in each, longer service life. With 2 teenage drivers in my house we made a decision that my wife and I will share a vehicle, my sons will share my other, no more than 2. Still the insurance cost is ridiculous. God forbid having to use it, too.
Roger T, I’ve reduced my fleet partly, or largely, because of insurance cost. When it costs a dollar a mile for insurance, for a car that isn’t driven much, it’s probably time to sell it.
I agree that Ford could have picked a better name than Mustang for their EV, such as Falcon, Fairlane, Cortina etc. Wouldn’t have hurt their pride and joy. As for what models to keep or lose, i am totally confused by almost all manufacturers decisions. They must have their reasons I guess.
It’s pretty simple to electrify a pickup. You have a large separate chassis, the motor/axle fits easily in the rear and the batteries between the frame rails. I don’t think they are sorry they did it. Personally I like the Ram idea for towing but I have no confidence in them actually making a good electric propulsion system.
I believe the copywriter of this transcript means well, but the words chosen are wrong…in fact, what’s described is physically impossible. DC current can NOT utilize “transformers.” True “transformers” can NOT, in any way, use Direct Current. It’s the laws of physics. True transformers can ONLY operate on Alternating Current! A DC to DC “transformer” simply can’t operate because there’s no constant “induction” created by DC. Transformers work by passing current into one coil (“primary”), which then induces current into another coil (“secondary”) located near the primary coil’s inductive field. That can only happen ONCE, when the current is initially fed, and then…nothing happens…no electricity flows. Current WILL, for sure, be induced into the secondary coil only when the current on the primary is removed! Think of an ignition coil (which is a true inductive transformer): DC is fed into the primary coil, but the secondary coil only becomes energized when the primary coil current is removed! Note the typical set of breaker points in a (now little-used) ignition system: points close to energize coil, and then when the points open, the field of the primary coil collapses and the current then gets induced to the secondary coil and makes its way to the spark plug. AC current doesn’t need that “on-off-on-off….” operation because AC is, by definition, “alternating” as its field is constantly changing. DC current’s field does not change, so instead, it’s rapidly turned on and off by the breaker points (or electronic circuits nowadays). What’s being called a “transformer” here is, perhaps, more accurately described as a DC to AC “converter.” There is a big difference!
Yep, a pickup is pretty easy to electrify. It’s easy to understand Ford’s overestimation of demand for Lightning, though. It would work well for most pickup drivers I know, who never tow, never haul anything heavy, never use them for long trips, and could easily set up home charging. Actually, a van would work much better for most of these people, but the”image” wouldn’t fit, nor would the image of an electric pickup.
Also hilarious: news stories out of California and Minnesota that thieves are now targeting EV chargers, dismantling them in the middle of the night for their few hundred dollars’ worth of copper wire. Repairs apparently run up to $4k per charger. After which the thieves come and do it again. Minneapolis has started installing cameras to deter thieves but they have had no affect. The thieves know that even if they are arrested it’s unlikely to result in any meaningful prosecution thanks to progressive DAs in those jurisdictions.
The vandalism/thefts happen everywhere, including places like Oklahoma. There need to be better means of catching people, but also, there needs to be a crackdown on whoever buys the copper.
Other than flexibility, there is little reason not to use aluminum for the cables. It is lighter in weight for the same conductivity.
Perhaps the Chinese EVs might come in and help folks get out of their old clunkers. Just end these excessive tariffs.
Bob, I heartily disagree. Totalitarian China has a very clearly formulated and implemented policy of massively aiding select industries (financially, by stealing IP, and restricting market access), in order to drive out the competition, and dominate the market thereafter.
It didn’t work so long as ICE vehicles reigned, but they realized quite a few years ago that the shift to EVs was a rare opportunity to reset the terms of trade.
And it’s very hard to rebuild a competitive automotive industry from scratch. That kind of manufacturing is real-world problem-solving scaled up to the max, in a vast universe of participants. The capital and skillsets necessary to thrive in such an environment deliver across the economy, and far into the future.
As I’ve said previously, if we lose that, how do we pay for 10 million cars from China every year? With porc and sweet potatoes or IOU’s? Given that China will source everything it can locally, up to high-value chips that are increasingly essential to cars nowadays.
A short-term, one-time fleeting gain in exchange for generational penury and servitude doesn’t entice me in the least.
RogerT, yes insurance is becoming quite expensive…but…my fleet combined, minus the newer vehicle, is cheaper than just the newer vehicle alone. That’s primarily why I can have so many.
Reasons aluminum ceased being used before for wiring was the expansion/contraction rate of the metal and the way it oxidizes in harsher environments. It can literally turn to a dust-like substance under certain conditions.
Yep, aluminum has “issues” when used for wiring, one being the high expansion coefficient. Aluminum is used for some of the “hidden” wiring of Tesla, and other chargers, but copper is much better for the vulnerable cable that connects to the vehicle.
The people have spoken, and they are doing it with their wallets. The governments can incentivize and regulate all they want to try and get people into EVs but when they don’t want a product, they can’t force it to be bought. As predicted people will just hold onto their ICE vehicles as long as they can. They would rather drive a 14-year-old vehicle than buy an overpriced EV. I’ve said it here many times that the EV segment was a niche market and should never have been looked at as a 100% replacement. So, these 2035 bans are a joke and pipe dream. They do have areas where they accel and will work great. We as a society should be looking for ways to capitalize on their strengths and use them where they make sense. However, for a large majority of the population the EV isn’t going to work for now and trying to force them is just causing many companies to lose billions of dollars. Those loses get rolled into what they do sell so we all pay more for this wild goose chase.
Speaking of paying more… anyone want to bet the insurance companies will have record returns this year? Likely the most profitable ever. Makes you kind of wonder if they haven’t all secretly colluded to work together on a little anti-trust agreement. Yet nothing will happen there either.
Here in Switzerland, the Tesla Model Y (now built in the outskirts of Berlin) remained the best-selling vehicle overall in Q1. Interestingly, outside the Škoda Enyaq, all other EVs including the Model 3 have fallen out of the top 15.
The slow but steady improvements to battery’s characteristics will continue, including affordability. This is a generational process, with a timeline stretching into the 2030s. And it’s not a given that more than 80% of vehicles will be fully electric either. But China is going full speed ahead, also with renewables.
The US definitely could use a more active anti-trust agency, modeled after the EU’s.