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Runtime: 10:06
0:00 Biden Raises Tariffs on Chinese Batteries, Parts
1:04 U.S. Looks to Ban Chinese Cars for National Security
1:51 Hybrid Sales Soar While BEVs Sputter
2:24 VW Backs Off BEVs, Pushes into Hybrids
2:47 Honda Makes Big BEV Commitment
4:19 Cybertruck Outsells Rivian 2:1
4:49 FSD Take-Rate Only 2%
5:25 Mitsubishi Eyes Futuristic Van
5:58 Nio Launches New Brand, Targets Tesla
6:59 Stellantis & Leap Send Shock Waves Through Industry
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BIDEN RAISES TARIFFS ON CHINESE BATTERIES, PARTS
Yesterday we reported that the Chinese-made cars sold by Buick and Lincoln in the U.S. would be hit by 100% tariffs. But it turns out that the tariffs only apply to electric cars. So Buick and Lincoln will not be affected. Where the tariffs will have an immediate effect is with batteries and battery parts for electric cars that are imported from China. The tariffs on those batteries and parts were at 7.5%. Now they’ll go to 25%, and that will have an immediate impact on companies that are importing them from China. For example, certain versions of the Mustang Mach E and F-150 Lightning use LFP batteries made by CATL in China. The 25% tariff could wipe out the low-cost advantage of LFP batteries from China.
U.S. LOOKS TO BAN CHINESE CARS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY
Even though that 100% tariff only applies to electric Chinese cars, the Biden Administration is working on another way to prevent any Chinese car companies from getting into the American market. Gina Raimondo, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce, will propose rules later this year that could ban connected cars sold by Chinese automakers. She says it’s all about national security. Connected cars collect data on people and infrastructure everywhere they go, and that could be beamed back to China. Every new car today is connected, so banning Chinese cars on a national security basis could make it harder for China to get the World Trade Organization to rule against it.
HYBRID SALES SOAR WHILE BEVs SPUTTER
This is turning out to be the year of the hybrid in the U.S. market. Data from S&P Global shows that sales of hybrids and PHEVs shot up 48% in the first quarter, while sales of BEVs were only up 5%. And hybrids and PHEVs easily outsold BEVs, 413,000 to 264,000. We’re seeing the same thing in the European market, hybrids up 20%, electrics only 3%.
VW BACKS OFF BEVs, PUSHES INTO HYBRIDS
And right on cue, the Volkswagen Group announced it’s going to back off its EV-or-bust strategy and will put more investment into hybrids. One reason is that Germany and Sweden have cut back the subsidies they offered to consumers to buy electrics, and that had an immediate impact on sales.
HONDA MAKES BIG BEV COMMITMENT
Meanwhile, Honda is going in the opposite direction. While Japanese automakers have been criticized for dragging their feet on transitioning to electric vehicles, Honda says it will invest $64 billion in EVs through the end of the decade. That’s about $6.4 billion a year, but Honda has already been spending $6.2 billion a year on R&D. So it’s not really increasing its investment that much. However, it will likely slash development of ICE products, and put that money into electrics. Honda’s strategy is to reduce BEV production costs by 30%, cut battery costs in North America by 20%, and make its EV supply chain more vertically integrated. It will launch seven of its 0 Series EVs globally by 2030, with the first launching in North America in 2026. By 2030, Honda is aiming for EVs and fuel cells to account for 40% of its global sales and have them represent 100% of sales by 2040.
CYBERTRUCK OUTSELLS RIVIAN 2:1
The Tesla Cybertruck is already outselling Rivian’s electric pickup two-to-one. According to S&P Mobility, the Cybertruck had 1,158 new registrations in March in the U.S., compared to just 548 for the Rivian R1T pickup. But the Ford F-150 Lightning beat both of them with 2,893 registrations, which is nearly triple from the year before.
FSD TAKE-RATE ONLY 2%
Speaking of Tesla, only a small number of owners decided to buy Full Self Driving after a free one-month trial, and after Tesla slashed the price to $8,000 or $99 a month. According to YipitData, out of the nearly 3,500 owners who participated, only 50 purchased or subscribed to FSD, which is only a 2% take rate. However, Elon Musk disputed that number and said the take rate is much higher. But he didn’t say what the number is.
MITSUBISHI EYES FUTURISTIC VAN
Mitsubishi doesn’t sell a lot of cars in the U.S. Last year it only sold 87,000, with three vehicles in its line-up. But things are picking up. First quarter sales shot up nearly 36%. And it’s going to add another model to its line-up, a sporty passenger van. Hopefully, it will look a lot like the D:X, a 6-seater PHEV concept van that it unveiled last year in Japan. But the van will not be on sale until late in this decade.
NIO LAUNCHES NEW BRAND, TARGETS TESLA
Chinese automaker Nio officially launched its new low-cost brand called Onvo. Meet its first model, a mid-size crossover called the L60, which is aimed directly at the Tesla Model Y. It features a 900-Volt architecture and has an energy consumption of 12.1-kWh per 100 kilometers, which is slightly lower than the Model Y. It has three battery pack options, 60, 90 and 150-kWh, which provide ranges from 345 miles to 621 miles based on the Chinese test cycle. Like Nio’s other models, the L60 also features swappable batteries. It’s available to order now and has a starting price of $30,500, which is 12% cheaper than a Tesla Model Y. Deliveries of the L60 begin in the third quarter of this year.
STELLANTIS & LEAP SEND SHOCK WAVES THROUGH INDUSTRY
When Stellantis announced it’s going to start selling electric cars made by Leapmotor in China, it sent shock waves through the industry. Even though Mercedes and Volkswagen are cooperating with Chinese automakers, Stella is going farther than that. It will use cars made by Leapmotor to fill out its line-up. We might see electric Fiats, Opels and Peugeots that were either made by Leapmotor, or which are based on its platforms. And that has got other automakers wondering if they should team up with Chinese automakers to get access to low cost EV technology. This is a trend that we’re going to have to watch closely.
Be sure to join us for Autoline After Hours later today. We’re going to have Mike Ramsey from Gartner Research and Joe White from Reuters. Some of the topics we’ll get into include what’s going on with autonomous vehicles, what the impact of the Biden tariffs on Chinese cars will be, and how far the UAW will be able to go in organizing the transplants.
And with that we come to the end of today’s report. Sean will be back here tomorrow, and it’s been a real pleasure for me to fill in while he was away. Over and out.
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Does China not have access to google maps? I mean if they want to see our infrastructure, roads highways and bridges a simple search will provide them not only that but even a streets eye view of the businesses and homes that line those streets.
More news on Cybertruck selling well yet haven’t heard a word on how many of those refundable reservations turned into non-refundable reservations. Have to assume that Tesla doesn’t want that number going public. They were more than happy to brag about the 2 million reservations they had when they wanted to spike the stock value and show interest was high. Then as they got into production and wanted an actual real number to plan for, they asked for $1000 non-refundable deposits, and we then hear nothing but crickets.
So even if only half still wanted them they should have the next 5 years allocated at 200k vehicles a year. Willing to bet you’ll be able to order one and get it next year.
@Nio The L60 with 12.1 kWh for 100 km is very efficient: 8 km/kWh = 5 miles/kWh. That is indeed like TESLA’s, but much better than most other EVs. We drive 2.5 miles per kWh with my wife’s Mach-e.
@TESLA FSD: a 2% take rate is a flop.
@TESLA Cybertruck: I have not seen a single one on the road, yet, in the Detroit Metro Area. Do others see the CT?
@Mitsubishi: great-looking D:X concept!
You can now make a fully refundable $250 deposit on a Cybertruck for “delivery in 2025.” “YOU WILL BE INVITED WHEN YOUR CYBERTRUCK IS READY TO BE CONFIGURED”
https://www.tesla.com/cybertruck/design#payment
The all caps is from the Tesla web site.
I’ve seen a couple Cybertrucks at Kennedy Space Center, there for “testing,” but I haven’t seen one on the road. I see quite a few Models 3 and Y, I suspect a lot of them owned by SpaceX employees.
Wim van Acker, I would not get too excited about the NIO numbers as the Chinese test cycle is overly optimistic. The EPA milage numbers are all was less and a lot of people with EVs have trouble meeting them. Also, the NIO vehicles do NOT meet any of the US crash standards which adds weight.
The most efficient EVs in the US are the Lucid Air Pure and Touring with 19 inch wheels and the Hyundai Ioniq 6 RWD with 18 inch wheels at 24 kWh per 100 miles.
@George: thanks for that intel!
You said the tariffs were for cars. Does the tariff apply to buses and other motorized vehicles? BYD has a bus factory in S California.
My friend in my hometown of St Louis, MO had sent me a pic of a Cybertruck driving around there. She had no idea what it was; thought it was some kind of tank!
I have seen one in our northern suburb of Atlanta, GA, and my friend said he saw one too, though it could have been the same one. I am seeing several Rivians down here now.
I have yet to see a CT around the Toledo area. I have seen a couple Rivian trucks though. Even more rare as the weather got nice the other day, I saw a McLaren 765 LT.
My wife and I saw a CT on Tamiami between Sarasota and Venice, Florida in late March. She thought it was an escapee from a Universal Studio movie. I couldn’t see the driver, so I can’t speculate about the driver’s head size or IQ.
They must have really ramped up CT production to fill those 2 million orders in a few months to a year, so they can deliver for new deposits in 2025.
According to S&P Global Mobility, there were 2,893 new F-150 Lightnings registered in the United States in March, 1,158 Cybertrucks and 548 R1Ts. The Lightning’s numbers nearly tripled year over year, while the R1T saw a 65% drop compared to March 2023.
Unquote insideevs. Those are pretty pathetic numbers overall. Rivian is preparing to upgrade its factory, and the R1S may be selling better? While the Cybertrucks’ ramp clearly still has a long way to go.
Honda’s decision to continue with there move to EVs is most interesting. It seems to suggest that they may be on to something and that they feel,the public will follow if presented with the right product a the right time! As others pull back, that gives them an opportunity with not a lot of competition pushing ahead from legacy OEMs. While this could pay off, especially if they get the pricing right, but their concepts were not the prettiest, in fact square-ish ones were down right weird to look at.
Are unsold Rivians piling up, or is production just low? Maybe total Rivian sales are flat, with more R1Ses and fewer R1Ts. Of the few EV owners I know, one has an R1T, used only within range of home charging.
From the horse’s mouth:
Irvine, California, May 7, 2024: Rivian Automotive, Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) today announced its first quarter 2024 financial results. As previously announced, the company produced 13,980 vehicles and delivered 13,588,
Unquote. Burned through about $1.4b in Q1, though – clearly unsustainable, even with cash on hand of $7.9b. But we know there will be changes.
If March was a “typical” month for Rivian, it looks like they are selling about 8 times as many R1Ts as R1Ss.
That’s 8 times as many R1Ss.