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Runtime: 10:11
0:00 Wall Street Worried About Tesla Q1 Sales
1:18 Some EV Buyers Turned Off by Elon
2:08 Stellantis U.S. Could Drop To #6
2:59 U.S. OEMs Want Japanese Steel Maker
4:17 EPA Issues Tough GHG Standards for Heavy Trucks
5:42 Oak Ridge Lab Develops Efficient Wireless Charger
6:44 Nissan & Mitsubishi In Joint PD For North America
7:36 SAIC To Cut VW, GM Jobs
8:35 Plenty of EV Demand If the Price Is Right
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WALL STREET WORRIED ABOUT TESLA Q1 SALES
Wall Street has itself in a tizzy over Tesla’s first quarter sales. Analysts are sure that Tesla is going to report a drop in sales, and the forecasts range in a drop of anywhere from 2% to 6%, compared to the fourth quarter of last year. The key will be to see if sales drop below last year’s first quarter. A year ago Tesla sold 422,875 cars. Anything below that could trigger another drop in the stock price which is down 29% this year. But Tesla could also prove all the analysts wrong. It started offering free Full Self Driving for this first month of ownership, as well as $1,000 discounts and free charging. Even so, sales in China slowed dramatically along with the rest of the market there so far this year. And that eco-attack on the plant in Berlin stopped production there for nearly two weeks. So Tesla can always blame outside factors if sales do drop below where they were a year ago.
SOME EV BUYERS TURNED OFF BY ELON
But part of the problem with sales of Tesla’s may have to do with Elon Musk himself. Reuters talked to 5 marketing, polling and car experts who say substantial numbers of the public are turned off by Musk’s right wing politics and controversial public statements. And if they’re in the market for an EV, many of them have crossed Tesla off their shopping list. In a U.S. survey by a company called CivicScience, 43% of respondents said they had an unfavorable view of Musk, up from 34% two years ago. Even so, brand loyalty amongst Tesla owners is still the highest in the industry. 68% of them buy another Tesla when they’re in the market for a new car.
STELLANTIS U.S. COULD DROP TO #6
There’s been a lot of management changes at Stellantis North America ever since former COO Mark Stewart left to become the CEO of Goodyear. A month ago, Stella shuffled the top execs handling retail sales, commercial sales, and Stellantis Canada. And now we’ve got some insight into why this is happening. Cox Automotive reports that the Hyundai Group, including Hyundai, Kia and Genesis, could outsell Stellantis in the first quarter in the U.S. market. In fact, it says Honda may even outsell Stella by the end of the year. And if that happens, Stellantis could drop to being the Number 6 automaker, behind GM, Ford, Toyota, Hyundai Group and Honda.
U.S. OEMS WANT JAPANESE STEEL MAKER
There’s a very strong Buy American sentiment in the United States right now, but not when it comes to making steel. Automakers in the U.S. are telling the Biden Administration they don’t want U.S. Steel to be sold to another American company. They want it sold to a Japanese company. President Biden wants U.S. Steel to be domestically owned, and the American steel company Cleveland-Cliffs wants to buy it. But automakers say that would give Cleveland Cliffs control of up to 90% of the steel used to make cars in the U.S. and 100% of the steel used to make EV motors and electric vehicles. Automakers believe that would give Cleveland Cliffs a monopoly which will lead to higher prices for steel. And they much prefer seeing U.S. Steel being sold to Nippon Steel from Japan, which is offering to buy it for $14.9 billion.
EPA ISSUES TOUGH GHG STANDARDS FOR HEAVY TRUCKS
The EPA is cracking the GHG whip with heavy duty trucks and buses. It just issued the strictest emission standards for them. The new rules are for model years 2027 through 2032 and the EPA says they’ll prevent up to 1 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions from being emitted over the next 30 years and will provide $13 billion in health benefits. The rules are different for the type of vehicle and how it’s used. For example, 30% of “heavy-duty vocational” trucks and 40% of short-haul “day cabs” need to be zero tailpipe emission by 2032. The trucking industry isn’t happy and two groups that represent it issued statements blasting the new standards. They claim the rules aren’t feasible with current EV technology and that the charging infrastructure isn’t adequate. The trucking groups also argue the rules will cause supply chain failures and that smaller independent trucking companies will hold onto older diesel trucks longer, hurting the EPA’s goals. However, the EPA says the rules were crafted to give owners a choice of powertrains and that the new trucks will save operators $3.5 billion in fuel and other costs, helping to pay for them.
OAK RIDGE LAB DEVELOPS EFFICIENT WIRELESS CHARGER
Researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee say they’ve achieved a significant milestone for wireless EV charging. They just demonstrated the highest wireless power transfer level for a light-passenger vehicle. Using a polyphase electromagnetic coupling coil patented by Oak Ridge, the researchers wirelessly charged a Hyundai Kona EV at 100-kW with 96% efficiency. Oak Ridge says its system reaches power densities 8-10 times higher than conventional coil technology and can increase the battery charge state by 50% in under 20 minutes. Wireless charging could help EV adoption since driver’s would merely have to park their vehicle over a charging pad, instead of having to get out a cable and plug it in.
NISSAN & MITSUBISHI IN JOINT PD FOR NORTH AMERICA
Nissan and Mitsubishi already develop minicars together for the Japanese market. And now they’re partnering to develop vehicles for the North American market for the first time ever. Nissan’s first plug-in hybrid for North America will use Mitsubishi components and Mitsubishi will launch an electric vehicle with Nissan’s tech. In addition to that, the two companies will jointly develop a pickup truck that will be built in Mexico. It’s a 1-ton pickup that could be the replacement for the Frontier with BEV and PHEV versions being considered. But it is still a way off and will hit the market sometime between 2027 and 2031. The two companies, which have been alliance partners since 2016, are teaming up on products in order to save on development costs.
SAIC TO CUT VW, GM JOBS
Uh-oh, this doesn’t sound good for Volkswagen or General Motors in China. Reuters reports that SAIC, which makes cars for those automakes, is going to slash its workforce by 30% at the assembly plants that make cars for GM, and by 10% for the ones that make Volkswagens. SAIC will also cut half the workers at an EV subsidiary called Rising Auto. It is extremely unusual for government-owned Chinese automakers to resort to layoffs, since the main reason those companies exist is to generate jobs. Reuters reports the headcount reduction will come from implementing stricter performance standards and offering buyouts to lower rated employees. But Reuters also reports that SAIC, VW and GM are denying they’re cutting headcount. One thing’s for sure, VW’s and GM’s sales in China have been falling fast.
PLENTY OF EV DEMAND IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT
Well, one thing’s for sure. If EVs aren’t selling very well, chopping the price makes a big difference. U.S. sales of the Mustang Mach E fell more than 50% in January when it lost its $3, 750 federal tax credit. That happened when the Biden Administration tightened up eligibility for subsidies based on where materials and components are sourced from. So Ford cut the price by more than $8,000 and the impact was immediate. Sales shot up 64% in February, and we’ll see how they did in March when Ford reports its sales this Wednesday. The data analytics firm Cloud Theory says this shows there’s actually a lot of demand for EVs as long as the price is right.
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What is interesting is that Nissan was one of the first with a production EV, but like Toyota with their hybrids, seem to pretty far behind the rest of the industry. While they have the Ariya, even that seems to be having a slow release and not as competitive as some of its closest competitors. Along with that, Nissan has billed itself as a sporting brand, but the Ariya, not so much. With the slow down in EV demand, not having the hammer down on an a product EV transition may sound like a good thing, but with Nissan appearing not have the showroom traffic as other brands, that may not help them either! That said, IMHO, this type of closer tie-up could/should/would do better for Mitsubishi, than Nissan for they have become almost nonexistent (in the US anyway). I’m pulling for the under dog and hope that each company find their footing and their space to thrive! Hopefully the future will bring greater fortunes for both companies.
Well Stellantis falling to number 6 in size could be because people have caught on that the quality of there products isn’t as good as other manufacturers. And I’m waiting see how that new inline 6 engine is in the durability department, I hope it is a really good engine, but it sounds like they are trying get all the power out of it so the customers that are impressed by high horsepower and torque will want it. But for reliability reasons maybe they should have cut the power and hopefully the reliability would be a bit better, I’ve heard the turbochargers are really packing the air into the cylinders. I hope the quality of the CDJR products gets better for the companies future.
John you hit the nail on the head when it comes to EVs. “There is demand if the price is right”. The fact that Ford is able to drop the price $8,000 when the rebates go away confirms my comment that rebates just allowed the automakers to pad their pockets with increasing the MSRP that gets artificially lowered with rebates. So not only does our tax dollars get used to help wealthy people buy expensive EVs but it helps the auto manufacturer charge more than they really need to.
I’m sure many in the trucking industry would be more on-board with EV trucks if they were similar in price. The fuel savings would make them very attractive. But when they have to spend so much more up-front that it’s a gamble if they will actually see the payback it’s a much harder sell.
Politicians need to start listening to the owners of these trucking firms and they will quickly learn why they wont buy them. The initial investment is huge from the higher priced trucks to the charging network they will require. I would also assume they will need some sort of battery supplement that could easily be attached to a truck. If they happen to run out of juice I would want the ability to place a small battery pack with @ a 20 mile range to get it back to the distribution/charging center rather than paying for a tow. The product has to be cheaper or better to sell and EV trucks are neither.
I’m fairly sanguine about Wallstreet. I’ve already place my TSLA bet and look forward to three hours from now. Then the bottom line in three weeks with the financial report.
Speculation is fun but money talks.
I think that what the customer satisfaction survey shows for Tesla is that those willing to hold their noses over Mad Musk are getting good cars. However I think many people are not willing to park their feelings now that there are good EV alternatives. Don’t see a solution for Tesla as I can’t see Elon walking away or changing his personality.
I think it’s only fair for all segments of society to help carry the load of reducing climate change. Trucks, busses, ships, trains, airplanes all have a roll to play. So does home heating which is a major source. All solutions eventually come down to the individual paying, unfortunately, so it would be good to get some savings into the system as we go along.
PepsiCo received the 21 Semi trucks from Tesla in December with the help of a $31 million grant from the California Air Resources Board (CARB), along with four 750 kW Megachargers, which enable charging to 80% capacity in less than 45 minutes. To support the tesla Meacharger and other chargers for smaller trucks PepsiCo needed to build an electric sub station and 3 MW of new electrical service to the facility which took three years.
Does anyone want to quess where the CARB got the 31 Millon dollars from to give away?
Large trucking companies or companies with a fleet of semi’s the cost of electric semi’s is not the only issue. It’s the cost and time of bring in new High Voltage electrical service to support the chargers is a killer.
No surprise on Stellantis. I’ve been watching for months the overwhelming amount of Ram, Jeep, & Dodge vehicles piled together in a dealer near me. In 15 yrs I’ve never seen so many NOT moving. 20% off on some Ram trucks still leaves room for more of a discount.
What Ford’s Mach e experience tells me is that $1 from the government is worth $2 from the seller. Maybe because we have experience getting breaks on the price of things, but little experience getting something back from the government?
Okay so which is it ? On one hand we here how Manufacturers are losing their shirts on every EV sold by thousands of $$$ but when they don’t sell they cut the price ? So are they now just throwing in the towel and taking a bath just to get rid of slow selling vehicles , or are they actually making money ,but not as much as they’d like to ? I never like the idea of the government bribing buyers with tax dollars to buy any product. Let the market dictate what people want to buy. The problem with these high priced EVs is it took up the price with everything else to try and make them look more affordable.
Call me a conspiracy theorist but China welcomed American car makers into their country, gleaned the useful technologies, buffered their in-house auto industry and now is edging the American’s out. Not quite nationalization of the industry (but similar results).
Well no wonder Stella is doing bad in the US . Dodge killed 2 of it’s most popular models The Durango hasn’t been updated in years , The Hornet is DOA Chrysler sells one model with lousy reliability reviews . Jeep has nothing inexpensive that doesn’t have terrible reviews. RAM has hit the wall and isn’t selling. Where else would they go , but down ?
Chuck that was my thought as well. China , “want to do business here? Give us all your intellectual property and team up with one of our companies” Once there is no more usefullness for you we’ll kick you to the curb.
As others have said, it’s no surprise that Stellantis sales are way down, at least in North America. All of the cars are gone, and the electric replacements aren’t here yet. Cherokee is gone. Renegade is gone. Compass is worst-in-class, or nearly so. Wrangler now has serious competition, with Bronco. Maybe everyone who wants a RAM pickup already has one. It was probably a mistake to even make Wagoneer. Even Ford is a distant second to GM in big SUVs.
The best thing for Tesla would be for Elon to completely remove himself from the company. Then, they could recover some the many potential customers that he is driving away. Also, without his influence, they might back off a little with the stupidity of no turn signal stalk, no displays in front of the driver, no wiper switch, etc. Unlike a few years ago, there is now a lot of serious competition out there. As others have said, though, he’s not likely to go anywhere.
The MachE’s not only had the sticker prices dropped significantly but are offering 0% for 72 months financing and additional rebates and discounts. The only time I have seen this type of ‘fire sale’ are when unpopular models that have been discontinued or have been totally redesigned for the next year are sitting on lots. I dare say if you give those kinds of deals on ANY new vehicle (not just EVs) they will move! Smart folks are waiting for the deals after seeing the early EV adopters getting hosed with premium pricing a few years ago and then watching the resale values drop faster than any other segment.
Musk advocating for fair free speech on social media only offends those who advocate censorship if the opinion differs from certain groups. He still runs a car company devoted to helping the environment.
There was a report months back that Ford lost $13k on every Mach E sold. So now they’re losing $21k I suppose just to get them off their lots? I hope buyers understand that they are getting a disposable car whose value will halve every year and no one will want to take as a trade in unless you royally take it in the shorts, as others have already learned. Then you’ll get to carry that negative equity into all your future purchases’ loans as a parting gift.
On the trucking front, the Ford Lightning already proved that towing any sort of load destroys battery range. So I don’t see how that works out for an 18 wheeler that has to get perishables across the country on the hustle. Add to that, all of these companies do their own fleet maintenance. How much retraining is involved here and how much investment is needed in proprietary tools, facilities and software to support these EVs? Will the manufacturers even allow that? I believe if you mess with the battery on your Tesla, it voids the warranty. Next there’s insurance. Maybe you’ve seen the stories of minor accidents totaling out expensive EVs because of the way their components are constructed, it’s very hard to disassemble and do even simple bodywork. Pray your battery pack isn’t hit. And if you don’t think fleet maintenance is a problem, look at the cities that spent millions on electric busses that even now sit broken in parking lots and have for years.
I will enjoy watching CARB continue to destroy California’s industrial sector.
A lack of competition is always a recipe for long-term decline. Having one company dominate important parts of the market for steel, where continued innovation remains important, is just self-defeating. Less parochialism also provides more ‘mojo’ to the economy in general.
By the way, Tesla’s supervised driving took a big leap with the beginning shift to its software’s latest version, built from the ground up on trained neural nets. Slowly, the hoopla is beginning to be justified. Although the current asking price is pretty fantastical, and the purported benefits to the corporation’s bottom line possibly a little exaggerated.
But the tech is fascinating, and will only be getting both better and cheaper. Don’t know if I really like it.
Musk does a lot more than advocate for twitter to mimic the constraints on government’s powers to infringe on our speech. I find his wholly uncritical association with people like Kim Dotcom et al., and uniquely uninformed pandering to their views, more than distasteful. He could easily know better, but can’t be bothered.
I just traveled 1300 miles for my yearly migration. In that trip, I saw more Teslas dead in the side of the road than all other brands combined. I also had the “privilege” of staring at a lot of Teslas with uneven trunk/liftgate gaps. One was so bad that I thought it was ajar, but the big gap on the LH side did not exist on the RH side. Love is blind.
Joe G, Elon’s idea of “fair free speech” includes a lot of lies and misinformation, some from Elon himself. Also, he has banned, at least for a time, some people whose opinions he didn’t like. So much for free speech.
It’s always been known that EV pickups would take a big range hit when towing, like gas or diesel trucks. Except for price, the logical market for Lightning would be the typical pickup driver who never tows, never hauls anything heavy, has access to home charging, and uses the truck mainly for commuting and grocery shopping. For road trips, even if not towing, EV trucks would add hours to a trip, more than with a Model 3, Mach-E, etc. because of the extra time to charge the really big battery.
Rats, Tesla production down 12%:
o Q1 2024, 433,371 total
o Q4 2023, 494,989 total
We’ll get the final numbers April 23 along with Tesla’s detailed analysis of both profits and production analysis.
Tesla is the only auto manufacturer that is so closely tied to its CEO. Most folks don’t know or care who is running Ford or who Mary Barra is. Stella (no longer a US co.) is even distanced more from its CEO or their political views. I could care less what any of them think or support politically. It’s too bad that Elon’s actions have such an impact on buyers that they would avoid a Tesla based on his actions. If people actually knew more about the other CEOs they would likely not be a fan of them either. They just do a better job of staying below the radar on controversial topics.
I suppose it has to be tough to be a celebrity or famous. When you have a large group of people that will follow you, I suppose you’d want to use that popularity to support your platform or agenda. The problem at least with celebrities is we make them popular singing or acting. We don’t care about their politics. All they do by speaking out is alienate half their fan base. Elon should probably continue to support whatever he feels is right but be less vocal and controversial. It’s actually a lose lose situation for him.
So Elon’s personality drives some EV buyers to non-Teslas? They deserve what they get.