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Runtime: 11:33
0:00 Tesla Has Worst Stock on S&P 500
1:32 What’s Happening with Tesla Mexico?
2:31 Fisker Hires Bankruptcy Experts
3:27 Telo EV Pickup: Size of a MINI, Cute As a Button
5:22 Mercedes Uses X-Rays for Crash Analysis
6:20 VW Unleashes More Performance EVs
7:37 VW-Branded Curpa Tavascan Launching in China
8:38 Legacy Auto Execs Worried About Losing Their Jobs
9:43 Not Enough EV Batteries to Recycle
10:18 Caddy’s 1st V-Series EV & Kia Replaces Small Cars with K4
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
TESLA WORST STOCK ON S&P 500
You’ve heard of the Magnificent Seven, right? Not the movie. I’m talking about the top tech stocks that are powering the stock markets to all time records, including NVIDIA, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Tesla. Except that Tesla is in danger of getting dropped from the Magnificent Seven list. Bloomberg reports that Tesla is the worst performing stock this year on the S&P 500, down 32%. That’s even worse than Boeing, which is going through a tailspin right now due to critical quality problems on its planes. Tesla’s market cap is still bigger than Toyota, Mercedes and BMW combined, but its stock trades at nearly 60 times earnings. Meanwhile, NVIDIA, the current market darling, only trades around 40 times earnings, which suggests that Tesla stock is still overpriced. Bloomberg says that Tesla’s problem is slashing prices, stiffer competition, and Elon Musk’s “outrageous posts” on X. That’s Bloomberg’s description not ours. Tesla bulls say don’t worry. This is just a temporary setback and the company will resume its strong growth rate. But it sure looks like the days of 50% growth a year could be over.
WHAT’S HAPPENING WITH TESLA MEXICO?
One thing that could re-energize Tesla’s growth is that $25,000 car that some call the Model 2. And we’re surprised to hear that Tesla will build it at its plant in Berlin. According to the German newspaper Handlesblatt, during his visit to the plant yesterday, Elon Musk told employees that the cheap EV will “definitely come to Berlin in the long term.” He also said that the plant could build the Semi truck too. But back in January, Musk said the $25,000 car would be built at Tesla’s plant in Texas. Could it be build at both? And that makes us wonder what’s going on with the plant in Mexico? We thought that plant would pioneer the new unboxed assembly process to slash costs. And it still could, but right now Tesla seems to be dragging its feet on building the plant because Elon is worried about high interest rates and their impact on car sales.
FISKER HIRES BANKRUPTCY EXPERTS
And while Tesla may have some problems to deal with, they pale in comparison to what’s happening at Fisker. Henrik already warned investors that the company could run out of cash this year, and now the Wall Street Journal reports that he’s hired a team of bankruptcy experts; FTI Consulting, which is a financial advisor, and Davis Polk which is a law firm. That generally means two things: a slash and burn approach to everyone’s budgets, and a desperate search for someone to buy the company. Even though Henrik says he’s in talks with a major manufacturer in North America, and other media reports say that’s Nissan, we think it’s highly unlikely to happen. Fisker really doesn’t have any assets to sell except the design of his cars. And most car companies are typically too proud to buy a design from one of their competitors.
TELO EV PICKUP: SIZE OF A MINI, CUTE AS A BUTTON
Even though the bloom is off the rose for some EV startups, there are plenty more willing to jump into the market. We really like the look of this compact pickup truck from a startup called Telo. It’s a 4-door, 5-passenger truck with the same footprint as a Mini Cooper, that can fit a 4×8 sheet of plywood flat in the bed. The company is claiming 500 horsepower, a 350 mile range, and a $50,000 price tag, not including any incentives. Telo actually has a running chassis, but it clearly has a long way to go. So far, it’s raised a bit over $7 million, which is a good start. But as you all know, in the automotive industry, EV startups with over a billion dollars in cash are running out of money. Even so, it would be pretty cool to see this truck actually out on the road.
MERCEDES USES X-RAYS FOR CRASH ANALYSIS
Mercedes is looking at crash tests in a whole new way. Or should I say, a whole new X-Ray? It says it was the first automaker to successfully X-Ray a crash test while it was happening. A special X-Ray device that can take up to 1,000 images a second, which is about a thousand times faster than a conventional X-Ray machine, is what made the test possible. Those images are then stitched together into a video and in this short clip here you get an overhead view of the crash test dummy during a side impact. It’s a little hard to tell what you’re looking at, at first, but you’re looking down at the head, rib cage and legs of the seated dummy before it’s swept away. Mercedes says it’s been developing the technology for the last several years with a technical institute because being able to see inside of components and how they deform in a crash could help it make safer cars.
VW UNLEASHES PERFORMANCE EVs
Volkswagen is expanding its lineup of sportier EVs or what it calls its GTX trim line. The first GTX model came out in 2021 and now it’s adding versions of the ID.3 and ID.7 station wagon. The ID.3 GTX only comes in RWD, but offers two power outputs for the motor. The base version has just over 280 horsepower, the same as the ID.4, while the performance version has 322 horsepower and will do 0-100 km/h in 5.6 seconds. It also features a slightly larger 79 kWh battery pack that provides up to 600 kilometers or 373 miles of range. The ID.7 GTX Tourer on the other hand is AWD with up to 335 horsepower, an 88 kWh battery and up to 622 kilometers or 387 miles of range. And like all GTX models, both feature unique lighting and fascia treatments as well as a few sporty touches to the interior. No word on official launch yet, but VW says it will be soon.
VW LAUNCHING NEW EV IN CHINA
In other VW EV news, it’s coming out with a new electric crossover for the Chinese market, called the ID.UNYX, which we think is pronounced ‘uniques.’ Some of you may recognize the styling because this is just a rebadged version of the Cupra Tavascan and both models will roll down the same assembly line in China, which it operates with joint venture partner JAC. So, that report we had the other day of VW and JAC investing nearly a billion dollars more into their JV, I think we now know where some of the money is going to. The ID.UNYX is based on the MEB platform and is offered as a 170 kW or 227 horsepower rear-drive model or with AWD and a combined 250 kW or 335 horsepower. It’s scheduled to launch in China later this year.
LEGACY AUTO EXECS WORRIED ABOUT LOSING THEIR JOBS
The auto industry is going through its biggest transition in history and a lot of executives are afraid of losing their jobs. According to AlixPartners 2024 Disruption Index, auto execs are more worried than those in any other industry. One in four think they could lose their job. The survey included 300 CEOs and senior executives across the global industry, including automakers, suppliers, dealers, aftermarket and mobility companies. A third of auto execs, 40% of suppliers and half of dealers are predicting “significant disruption this year.” A majority also say it’s becoming increasingly more difficult to know which disruptive forces need to be prioritized, and a third of them say they’re concerned their company isn’t adapting fast enough. While many execs see software defined vehicles as an opportunity, a large number also see it as a threat, especially the cost of implementing them.
NOT ENOUGH EV BATTERIES TO RECYCLE
Not long ago, some people were shouting that there wasn’t enough capacity to recycle EV batteries. But ABI Research says the problem is exactly the opposite. The U.S. alone will have the capacity to recycle the equivalent of 1.3 million EVs annually by 2030, But the problem is that only 341,000 EVs will be ready for recycling by then. ABI believes recycling projects will be delayed or scaled back, until there are enough batteries to make the recycling business profitable.
CADDY’S 1ST V-SERIES EV & KIA REPLACES SMALL CARS WITH K4
And before we sign off today, there’s a couple of vehicle teasers we’ll quickly go over. Cadillac says it’s going to unveil its first V-Series electric car later this year, a concept it’s calling Opulent Velocity. And Kia teased the replacement for its small cars, what it now calls the K4. Depending on the market you’re in, the K4 will take over for Forte, Ceed or Cerato. Styling is more in line with its other new models, which is a little more aggressive than the current cars. The new K4 debuts at the New York auto show on the 27th of this month.
And that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.
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-Tesla has always been a very volatile stock up and down
-some people need a small car since parking is at a premium like in Europe
-glad to hear Mercedes and the Xray
-Autoline keep up the good work always enjoy program everyday
Why would a German manufacturer introduce a vehicle in China with a ‘clever’ english name?
The Mercedes x-ray system looks next level in learning exactly how things move and deform in accidents. Well done.
Workers at Mercedes now get 1000% more radiation during a crash test. 🙂
A third of auto execs, 40% of suppliers and half of dealers are predicting “significant disruption this year. Which brings me back to my comment from Tuesday that the increase in vehicle inventory might be due to the constant disruptions in the automotive pipeline. From Covid to Chip shortages to Strikes it just seems like there is always something. Executives are struggling to determine a good EV/ICE/Hybrid mix and even though public interest is out of their control Governmental mandates may cause them to make vehicles no one wants. So yeah good reason to be worried.
I’m not sure how a V-version EV will go at Cadillac. Seems quickness was already one of the selling points of EVs. So unlike traditional V-versions where their base cars had @300hp and Vees got the Corvette V8 and later twin turbo V6s how do you offer an EV and then a V-version? I guess a sportier exterior trim and interior.
It will be interesting to see how they get the 4 x 8 sheet of plywood in the Telo trucklet. It will be barely over 4 feet from the front of the plywood to the front of the vehicle. Can there be a driver in there, or do the front seats need to fold forward?
I am not surprised that Tesla will build the Model 2 in Germany. Europe’s small car market is huge.
What I am surprised about is that this is the first time I have heard anything about the Semi in a long time. Is it actually in regular production? Is the design or engineering being tweaked after the evaluation units racked up a bunch of test miles? Are they secretly developing a fuel cell version for long haul routes?
Since every major heavy-duty truck and engine company is working on EV models and several have active fuel cell development programs, it would be great if Autoline provided an update on the current status of the Semi.
A couple of comments.
Re Tesla Model 2. Elon did say all those things, but he did not say they would all happen at once. It is quite possible that the Model 2 starts production in the US without the unboxed process, then moves on to Berlin and finally to Mexico with the unboxed process if/when the volume and competition make the increased efficiency necessary. Even Elon should shy away from doing a new model, new workforce, new process all at the same time.
Re Fisker. I haven’t heard any details about Ford’s future ‘clean sheet/ advanced electric cars. If the Fisker
models are in fact advance, I could see Ford investing in order to use the design instead of having to come up with their own. Do we know if the Fisker designs are advanced?
Re: Battery recycling. The internet has been showing pictures of huge numbers of Chinese EVs that were never sold and are sitting in fields. You could probably get them pretty cheap to practice recycling on. Also, early crap EVs (VW, Leaf, Mini) are so bad that recycling is the only thing they are good for.)
The big inventory is of vehicles with “normal” demand, like big pickups and compact CUVs. There is zero inventory, at least where I am, of certain vehicles like Prius and Sienna. Maybe more companies need to make good, efficient, mechanically simple hybrids. Ford is dropping theirs, and while Hyundai and Kia have some hybrids, they go out of their way to make them mechanically complex, with no advantage over the much simpler Toyota competition.
The secret to getting plywood into the Telo is that the body lifts off before you hit Home Depot. That’s what they were demonstrating. Outdo a Jeep.
Since even regular EV SUVs must have sub 5 second 0-60 times, I think we’ll be looking for sub 3 second times for the V.
Remember when unintended acceleration was a thing, mainly with older folk in high heels? As more and more EVs are purchased, history will repeat itself. Humans have not evolved.
It was an interesting AAH today.
Especially interesting, and hard to believe, one of the guests said a higher percentage of apartment dwellers than single family home dwellers have EVs. I wouldn’t consider an EV without home charging, but would probably have an EV as one of my cars if I had home charging. One that could change that would be if sit down restaurants I go to had level 2 charging.
Something he said that didn’t surprise me is that Elon Musk’s managing of, and posting on former twitter has driven “liberals” like me away from considering a Tesla. Not surprisingly, Elon is viewed more favoably by “conservatives,” but a little surprisingly, that has not transferred to interest in Tesla cars by that group.
IfTesla does build a semi in EU I doubt that it will be their current design as there are a lot of restictions on length over here and cab-overs are the norm –
Good for Elon to hold true to his convictions and morals and his desire to allow free speech on X. Not bowing to the pressure of allowing people to only post politically correct or what a small group of people thinks is right or acceptable. Free speech does mean you have wackos that will post false information and far out conspiracy ideas. Thats why people need to be taught critical thinking and be able to decipher through the nonsense. We don’t need the government to hold our hands and protecting us from ourselves. Because in order to do that they would need to restrict free speech like they did on FB. So, although it may cost Tesla some buyers, I think it’s good to see a man not compromise his morals in order to make a buck. He has plenty and will be just fine. The stockholders on the other hand would probably prefer he keep his opinion to himself. Tesla still sells more real EVs than anyone else. I don’t count BYD because much of their sales are golf cart cars that can’t go over 35mph. Those should be in a different class than cars you can actually drive on a hyw.
Agree with Kit this was an interesting AAH with interesting conversation and data, but I too have trouble understanding how there seem to be more EV buyers living in apartments? Is that down to California, where EVs now make up 25% of new car sales?
As for twitter, one person owning such a medium is something of a red flag that Musk doesn’t ever seem to consider. I’ve blocked him, but still get his unsolicited, Kremlin-friendly slant mixed into daily emails. He could do with reading Anna Politkovskaya’s ‘Russian Diary’, for starters.
I too was surprised that more non-homeowners were buying EVs than home owners. But I have to wonder if that study was asking if they own or rent and some may be renting a home and not necessarily in an apt. But either way that is telling that within a city where there are available charging stations it can work.
Sean- As for single person Musk owning X. It’s still a publicly traded company that does have a board to answer to. As for what he posts or his opinions I’m not sure why anyone would be concerned with that. Thats the great thing about free speech and a free country. Everyone should have a right to their opinion even if it’s not popular. We also have the freedom and right to not support him, buy his products or follow him on X. I don’t even have the app. The days of just being able to disagree with someone and have a discussion about the differences seems to have been replaced with. We must all have the same thoughts and conform or be given some title that doesn’t even apply make sense but is basically resorting to name calling.
I suspect there is a lot more charging a short walk from apartments in California, than in Florida. Where I am, it would be crazy to have an EV without home charging, unless you have charging available at a work place where you spend 8-10 hours a day.
Lambo, Musk does as he wants with twitter, which is as Sean describes. Whatever board they have has no power over anything. The trouble is, the “free speech” of a figure like Musk tends to have more power than most of our speech, and yes, some of Elon’s posts are highly misleading, some actual disinformation, and many dangerous to come from such a figure. I only recently blocked him, but I’d had enough.
TESLA has only one way to go in terms of market share, and that is downward. People can blame his X posts all they want, but the reality is that the competition is heating up with solid product and the EV market is saturated worldwide. TESLA will only lose market share in such a market reality. The only way they would not lose market share is if the market was growing, which it most certainly is not. Now, TESLA could inject some new designs that look like something other than a non-descript blob or a childish designed and ugly truck. They could throw in a proper ergonomically correct interior that is something more than a piece of flat plastic with a screen glued to it. That is how they could regain market share. Until then, the only option they have is to reduce price on their boring poorly styled line up that induces yawns and/or laughs from everyone in a hope that it maintains market share, which it will not.
While Teslas other than Model S are not very attractive to me, the only big thing wrong with the cars is the distracting, unfriendly operator interface in Models 3 and Y. I’ve driven a Model 3 which drove pretty well, but the controls are awful, and the ride and road noise were sub-par for a car its size and price.
Merkur- Exactly! As EV’s took off Tesla was the obvious leader. I’m not sure of the actual percentage but I’m sure early on they probably had almost 80% of the EV market in the US. 1) Because there wasn’t much competition. 2) because they executed an EV that was attractive and had features like quickness and AV tech no one else was exploiting. So of course, as the market grows and other jump into the mix it would be practically impossible to maintain 80% of the market. They still sell more cars each year over last. He is just losing market share and I doubt it has much to do with his posts on X.
I know if I was in the market to drop 50K on a product I would shop for the best one and buy it, I certainly wouldn’t be deterred or get all butt hurt of the owner’s opinions or tweets. Not going to buy an inferior product because I disagree with someone.