AD #3395 – Can Tesla Sell 20 Million EVs?; Charging Stations Need This Design Change; Volocopter Eyes 2024 Paris Olympics

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

IIHS WANTS AEB TO WORK AT NIGHT
Automated emergency braking for pedestrians is a big step forward in automotive safety except for one thing. It doesn’t work very well at night. So now the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety is adding nighttime testing for AEB and it says automakers need to improve. It evaluated 23 mid-size SUVs and small pickups. And it gave them four different ratings: Superior, Advanced, Basic or No Credit. Only four earned the highest Superior rating: the Ford Mustang Mach-E, Nissan Pathfinder, Toyota Camry and Toyota Highlander. More than half the vehicles tested only got Basic or No Credit scores. In daytime tests, 19 of the 23 vehicles received the top Superior or Advanced ratings. Pedestrian fatalities have been on the rise in the U.S. over the last decade and last year, 7,300 were killed, with three-quarters of those occurring at night. Starting next year, vehicles will have to earn a Superior or Advanced score to receive a Top Safety Pick Plus award from the IIHS, and that means their AEB systems will have to work at night.

SKODA FINDS WIRING SOURCES OUTSIDE OF UKRAINE
Ukraine was a major supplier of wire harnesses for European automakers before Russia invaded. But the war caused all kinds of production disruptions. And that forced automakers to scramble to find new places to make harnesses. Czech automaker Skoda, which is part of the VW Group, turned to the Czech Republic, Morocco and Romania. Skoda says it can now double current production volumes if needed.

CAN TESLA REALLY SELL 20 MILLION EVS?
Elon Musk has set the extremely ambitious goal of Tesla selling 20 million EVs a year by the end of the decade. Reuters did an analysis of what it will take to reach that milestone and it would take an enormous effort. 20 million EVs is about 13-times what Tesla is expected to sell this year. That would require the automaker to build 7 to 8 more gigafactories. And it would need a new one of those every 12 months. On top of that it needs batteries. Tesla currently uses about 100 GWh of batteries a year. 20 million EVs would require about 3,000 GWh, which would use up 4-times the raw materials that the entire EV industry will use this year. The additional plants and battery capacity would cost Tesla an estimated $600 billion.

TESLA SUES LOUISIANA OVER RETAIL RULES
Speaking of Tesla, it’s suing the state of Louisiana. And that’s because Louisiana bans direct sales of cars to consumers. Tesla says it violates state and federal antitrust laws that pertain to interstate trade. It also says the state is restricting the leasing and servicing of its cars. All this shows how powerful car dealers are when it comes to blocking Tesla and other EV startups that do not want to use franchise dealers to sell their EVs. And it will be interesting to watch because it could set a precedent for more lawsuits to follow.

VOLOCOPTER EYES 2024 PARIS OLYMPICS
Taking a ride in a human-sized drone might be closer than you think. Urban air mobility provider, Volocopter, says its goal is to launch before the Paris Olympics in 2024. Right now it’s conducting flight tests on the VoloCity, its urban air taxi, which features 18 propellers mounted in a ring around the cabin. These tests are meant to lead to the aircraft’s certification and eventually its commercial launch. And like so many of these aircraft startups, Volocopter is backed by a couple of automakers, which includes Mercedes and Geely.

HONDA LAUNCHES WILD NEW AD CAMPAIGN
And here’s another automaker that’s getting into eVTOLs or electric Vertical Take Off and Landing aircraft. Honda just put out a new brand campaign that focuses on all the things people said it couldn’t do, which, of course, it eventually does, like building cars and airplanes and having success in racing. And at the end it shows a digital rendering of Honda’s eVTOL, which indicates it’s a hybrid that runs on e-Fuel. So, like Toyota and Porsche it looks like Honda wants to develop synthetic fuels as a solution for reducing carbon emissions.

BRIDGESTONE SCALES UP GUAYULE PRODUCTION
Earlier this month Bridgestone pioneered the use of tires made from guayule in IndyCar racing. And now it’s investing $42 million to grow guayule on 25,000 acres in Arizona. It’s all part of Bridgestone’s plan to use guayule for commercial use at scale by 2030. Guayule is a shrub that grows in deserts and uses half the water of other crops like cotton and alfalfa. And it can be used to make tires. Bridgestone says this will help it meet its goal of becoming carbon neutral and developing tires that are 100% recyclable.

EV CHARGING STATIONS NEED THIS SIMPLE DESIGN CHANGE
The US is rapidly building up its EV public charging network but executives at Navistar say there’s a problem with the way it’s being done. Public charging stations don’t leave room for big electric rigs, or even electric pickups that are pulling a trailer. For example, if you have an F-150 Lightning you have to drop the trailer, pull the truck up to a charger, charge up, then back out and hook up the trailer again. Semis and school buses can’t even get close enough to most chargers. So Navistar is saying ‘just leave enough room’ for big vehicles to use public chargers, or at least the ones that are close to highways. And yes, big electric rigs and buses use the same CCS charger you’ll find on most electric vehicles.

TOYOTA SMASHES, BASHES AND CRASHES VEHICLES
When an automaker is developing a new vehicle, how many times do you think it has to crash test it? It’s probably more than you think. Despite all the simulation software that automakers use, and despite the fact that it correlates quite well to real world crashes, there’s still a gap between virtual crashes and real ones. Toyota says it conducted 70 crashes when it was developing the new Tundra pickup. In fact, at its test lab near Ann Arbor, Michigan, Toyota conducts 4 crashes a week. And it learns something new from almost every crash. The good news is, once it gets a platform fully tested, it doesn’t need to conduct as many crashes for vehicles that are developed on the same platform. So, for example, the Toyota Sequoia, which is built on the same platform as the Tundra, only needed 20 crashes to get it all right.

WHY GM INSIDERS FOUGHT AGAINST THE ESCALADE
The Cadillac Escalade is probably the most profitable vehicle that General Motors sells. But did you know there was a big fight in the company over whether they should make it or not? A number of people in GM thought Cadillac customers would never buy a luxury SUV and they tried to prevent GM from building it. That’s what we’ll be talking about on Autoline After Hours this Thursday. John Smith, who ran Cadillac and fought hard to bring out the Escalade will be our guest. And we’ll also get his opinions on Cadillac’s goal to go all-electric by 2030.So join John and Gary for what will be an amazing look into the inner workings of a giant car company.

But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for making Autoline a part of your day.