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Runtime: 9:26
0:00 Yanfeng Faces More Cyber Threats
1:13 EV Sales Slow in China
2:21 GM, Ford Offset UAW Labor Costs with Cuts
3:25 Used EV Residuals Drop
4:15 Toyota Adds EVs To EU Lineup
5:16 BYD Offers Awards to Stop Smears
5:56 Xpeng Shows Off AV Tech
6:44 Will Rivian Sue Tesla?
7:21 Forecast: Cybertruck Will Only Sell 36,000/Year
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This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.
YANFENG FACES MORE CYBER THREATS
We’re learning more about that cyber-attack on the supplier Yanfeng last month. It makes seats and all kinds of interior components, and it was hit by a cyber-attack that not only shut down part of its operations but also shut down some operations at Stellantis. Now a ransomware gang, called Qilin, has claimed responsibility for that cyber-attack and says it has a lot of sensitive information that it will dump out in public in the coming days. Cyber experts expect Qilin to demand a 6- or even 7-figure payout to not release that information. So Yanfeng will probably be forced to figure out how valuable that information is. You may recognize the name Qilin. It’s the same name that CATL uses for its new EV battery. And it’s the name of a unicorn-like creature in Chinese mythology.
EV SALES SLOW IN CHINA
We’ve got the latest EV sales numbers from China, and they seem to suggest that the growth of the EV segment is slowing there, too. Most EV automakers, except Tesla, posted strong year-over-year increases in November. BYD, NIO, Li Auto, Zeekr and XPeng had double digit percentage increases, while Tesla’s sales fell nearly 18%. However, on a month-to-month basis, from October to November almost all EV makers showed little or no growth, while Tesla posted a 14% increase. China’s economy seems a bit wobbly at the moment, and that may explain the slowdown in EV growth. But we also saw EV growth slowdown in the U.S. and European markets this summer. Last month, EV sales in Europe shot up again, so maybe this is just a normal seasonal variation in car sales. But we’ll really want to keep an eye on EV sales in China and the US to see if they get back to their prior growth rate.
GM, FORD OFFSET UAW LABOR COSTS WITH CUTS
GM and Ford say they will be able to off-set the cost of their new labor contract with the UAW, even though it will add roughly $9 billion in costs over the next 4 years. But those off-sets will be painful. Most of the savings will come from reducing capital spending, slashing marketing costs, reducing the number of model variations they sell and reducing headcount. While both companies will remain solidly profitable, they’re going to hit the lower end of the guidance for profits and cash flow they gave to Wall Street. While Stellantis hasn’t reported the cost of its contract, it’s very likely going to resort to the same tactics to offset higher labor costs.
USED EV RESIDUALS DROP
Used EVs are not holding their value very well right now. Market research firm Black Book estimates that the average 3-year old used vehicle held about 66% of its original value in October. But a 3-year old used EV only held about 49% of its value. The biggest factor is a drop in new EV pricing, which has a trickle-down effect on the used EV market. Not only are automakers figuring out ways to build electric vehicles cheaper but with more competition we’ve seen significant price discounts. Experts predict the wild fluctuation in the EV market could end up driving more new car buyers into leasing because they’ll be less impacted by the steep depreciation of the vehicle.
TOYOTA ADDS EVs TO EU LINEUP
Toyota keeps talking about hybrids but it’s quietly ramping up its EV efforts. In Europe, it plans to increase its EV lineup to six models by 2026 and is aiming to sell 250,000 BEVs there by then. Toyota revealed concepts of two of those models. The production version of the Urban SUV concept goes on sale next year and will offer two battery choices but Toyota didn’t reveal their sizes. The other concept is called the Sport Crossover which is a fastback SUV that will get a production model in 2025. Some of those new EVs could have a new battery chemistry. As Toyota previously announced, it’s developing a method to produce solid-state batteries in higher numbers and is aiming to commercialize them in 2027 or 2028 with a production capacity of “several tens of thousands of vehicles.”
BYD OFFERS AWARDS TO STOP SMEARS
Chinese EV maker BYD is dead serious about protecting its brand image. It’s offering tipsters rewards of $7,000 to $700,000 if they report about anyone trying to smear the company’s reputation. BYD says the evidence it wants collected should include chat records, emails, contracts, fund transfers and other information. If BYD verifies the smear campaign is true, it will then reward the tipster. And this is not a new problem for BYD. It actually started the reward campaign in 2021.
XPENG SHOWS OFF AV TECH
In the U.S., there are lots of questions about the future of autonomous vehicles. But that’s not the case in China. XPeng is showing off its autonomous technology with a video it posted on social media showcasing its X9 electric minivan. It was able to drive into an underground parking garage, find an open spot and park itself. The van was then summoned with an app and drove itself out of the garage and to the owner. XPeng says the function is only for testing purposes and isn’t available to the public yet. But unlike some other autonomous parking systems, it doesn’t look like XPeng requires any sensors installed in the parking structure itself. It looks like it’s all in the van.
WILL RIVIAN SUE TESLA?
Could one of Tesla’s competitors block it from using the range extender battery pack that it revealed for the Cybertruck? In 2019 Rivian filed a patent for its own removable battery pack that fits into the bed of its R1T pickup. The setup also includes an integrated cooling system for the battery. And now some are wondering if Tesla’s system is close enough to Rivian’s that it could be considered copyright infringement or if it’s already made some sort of deal with Rivian? I doubt either one is the case, but it’d be pretty wild if they were.
FORECAST: CYBERTRUCK WILL ONLY SELL 36,000/YEAR
The official launch of the Cybertruck last week kicked off a media frenzy. But how many of them will Tesla actually be able to sell in the US market? On the most recent Autoline After Hours, Warren Browne from RFQ Insights, who does sales forecasting, said his projections show that only 36,000 Cybertrucks will be sold every year. That does not include sales outside the US, but pickup trucks only sell well in a handful of global markets. However, that sales number could easily be a bit pessimistic. In a Facebook post, Ford CEO Jim Farley says the company sold 4,400 F-150 Lightnings in November. If Ford could hold that sales rate it would sell over 52,000 electric pickups in a year. By the way, Warren Browne does believe that electric pickup sales will grow… a lot. Here’s forecasting sales of over 320,000 units a year by 2027. And if you’d like to watch more of that show with Warren Browne and industry expert Lindsay Brooke we’ll provide a link in the transcript and description box.
But that brings us to the end of this show. Thanks for tuning in.
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GM, FORD OFFSET UAW LABOR COSTS WITH CUTS – I think we will big changes in assemble line with large sub assemblies that would allow more automation (less UAW workers) that come together near the end of the line.
I did watch AAH and Linday Brooke has a much better grasp on reality when it comes to the future of EVs. To support his stance legislation that was introduced a few months ago will be voted on this week (the CARS act). Which will strike down pending federal regulations targeting gas-powered vehicles and prohibit any future electric vehicle (EV) mandate. The CARS act (Choice in Automobile Retail Sales Act) would block the EPA regulations, which are part of the Biden administration’s broader effort to expand EV adoption in the U.S. and fight global warming by curbing carbon emissions.
I posted this in last week’s comments but figured not many go back a read last week’s posts.
On the Autonomous parking, I wonder how well that works when many parking garages have floors underground and next to no cell signal. Will you still be able to retrieve your car if the car doesn’t have a signal? And if not, are you able to locate it seeing how GPS doesn’t work well underground either.
The EV’s residual value dropping doesn’t surprise me as with any new technology you pay a premium to be an early adopter. It’s no different than when flat screen TVs came out and it was $4000 for a 46″ TV that you could buy for $1500 two years later and now can get a 75″ for under $1000. As battery tech changes and evolves they will continue to get better making the old stuff less appealing.
That “CARS” act is not serious. It will not get the needed 60 votes to pass in the senate, and Biden wouldn’t sign it. It’s safe to assume, though, that there will be major back tracking at the EPA when it is obvious that some of the proposals are not realistic.
Also, a major part of the “CARS act” would be to to preclude EPA from issuing federal preemption waivers for California pollution standards, which have been in place for decades.
Yep, the steady price decreases of EVs will cause huge depreciation of existing ones, and the fact the more and better EVs are coming to market won’t help either.
Lambo, thanks for sharing.
EVs are not for everyone, particularly if you’re a cattle rancher and need to drive long distances with a heavy / bulky trailer. For mostly everyone else EVs will be better and mid term also cheaper to buy and operate, no matter what CARS say. The question is whether we’ll all be driving Chinese made EVs in the future or whether we’ll incentivize locally made EVs until this transition is done with.
Wow this guy Warren Browne was “Spot on” ???? in 2020 he predicted 500,000 ev’s by 2025 at the most, well I think we’ll pass that this year. With less than 2% of Americans making their living off the farm will they make up the bulk of pickup buyers? With line ups to see the Cybertruck out the door of Tesla showrooms, it will only sell 36,000 a year?? Just more and more questions, but we’ll know the answer, a year from now, answers not questions.
When I read the ways to save money and it says reducing model variations they sell makes me think they are going to have 1 color for all interiors and maybe offer 3-4 exterior colors at no extra charge but will offer a few more colors for an extra charge of $400-$500 so you can have a color besides graphite, silver and white. Personally I don’t want to spend $40,000 and have to take whatever they decide is the cheapest for them to build.
I suspect there will be a lot of Cybertruck cancellations. From electrek:
“At the original Cybertruck unveiling, Tesla said the truck would start at $39,900, be available in late 2021, have a payload of 3,500 pounds in a 6.5-foot bed, and a tow rating of up to 14,000 pounds max range of 500+ miles for the top-end version (which was meant to start at $69,900).
As of yesterday, we know that none of those numbers are true. The truck starts at $79,990 today (and $60,990 in 2025), has a payload of 2,500 pounds in a 6-foot bed, a tow rating of up to 11,000 pounds, and a range of 340 miles, or 470 with an additional battery that eats up a chunk of your bed space.”
I’m with Danny T. on lack of “choice.” How was it that when computers barely existed, in the ’50s and ’60s, car companies were able to offer about 15 paint colors, 6 or 7 interior colors, and individual options allowing millions of build combinations? Now, you typically have a choice of black, white, and two or three shades of grey, and maybe blue-black and maroon. For interiors, it’s black, grey, and in some cases, tan. That’s not to mention all of the different powertrain options in most cars in the 1960s.
I have no requirements for a Cyber Truck. So I had no reservation or even followed the buzz. Then I saw this 1 hr 21 min long review in the web link.
I’m rethinking my requirements.
I usually do not make predictions but one exception: I will never have a Cybertruck. But I have watched the TESLA delivery event video on YouTube and also watched a product test and was very impressed. It seems like those will sell well. There have to be tens of thousands of people who want to buy a stainless-steel tank with bullet proof doors and a design that makes them stand out. It accelerates rapidly and has a large range. They also showed video of the Cybertruck hauling dirt and a rocket engine and it is all impressive. A vehicle that many posers will want. I am also a poser, just not a poser who wants a huge truck.
The Cybertruck’s pricing demonstrates that the promises (or hopes) of Tesla’s battery day have not been fulfilled up to now. Maybe the interface provided for the range extender will be used by an enterprising company to offer a three-cylinder Turbodiesel generator… BMW has the perfect engine:
https://mediapool.bmwgroup.com/cache/P9/201607/P90228181/P90228181-further-developed-bmw-twinpower-turbo-3-cylinder-diesel-engine-07-2016-2100px.jpg
It would give the basic Cybertruck a real towing capacity.
You can cut 9 billion starting with leadership payouts.
Am I the only one that thinks of the cyber truck as the Aztec of electric trucks?
I forgot to add the links:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7QmLAW5vFw
and this one is a must-see, hilarious https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyrTLYyIvNI
It will be interesting to see how Cybertruck sales go, with the base price double what was promised initially. There will be the Tesla fan boys who will want one, even at $80K, but those thousands who made deposits, figuring on buying them for $40K and flipping them, will be out of luck.
Sean, how much power is that BMW engine? I’m not a fan of series range extenders, because they are horribly inefficient compared to connecting an ICE to the wheels, but that diesel should be about as efficient of such an arrangement could get. For occasional use for longer trips, with most driving done on plug-in power, it could be a useful option. Could they put that engine with a generator in the frunk?
From memory, it’s from 90-120hp, depending on boost. I’d say it could go exactly where Tesla wants to put their own range extender, ie. just behind the cabin on the bed. The fuel tank could reside in the extra space under the bed. Of course it would be ideal to lose the frunk and put it there, though I’m not sure if there’s sufficient depth.
Tesla sold ~7K Model Xs in California during Q3. Rivian ~3K cars. The Cybertruck is going to find a lot of buyers, and likely only get cheaper. Sales could shoot up a lot if the basic truck were available with a Diesel range extender. Which enterprising company will fill the gap first?
Sorry, above numbers are Q3 YTD. Rivian actually 3832 R1S’s. Source:
California New Car Dealers Assoc.
https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-3Q-23_FINAL.pdf
Kit, I remember the variety of choices in the 1960s/70s. A couple of things changed that.
First, some of the Japanese quality advantage was attributed to their reduced product complexity. But, the reality was that the Japanese assembly plants (pre-transplant era) contained a lot of product complexity to serve multiple markets and build multiple variants/models. We just didn’t see all that complexity… as long transit times necessitated simple offerings to fulfill dealer orders.
Second, the variation of electrical content was a very small fraction of a vehicle’s content in the pre-air bag era and is minuscule compared to today’s vehicles. The ability of engineers to validate the quality of most vehicle systems is inversely related to the complexity of the electrical system build combinations.
About the reduced range of exterior and interior choices – since cars remain roadworthy a lot longer, I think the shift to more conservative combinations actually makes a lot of sense, although it certainly doesn’t help to enliven our streets.
About the Cyber Truck, two engineers discussing ‘the Beast” version. A 3d party review spikes my interest. Curiously, the link to the 1 hr 21 min, YouTube review failed to show up:
“https://youtu.be/NjIPEtegPt4?si=7ba3n8Ys5VvT4HG-“
I guess if people are still buying Models X, some won’t mind the $80K to be first on the block with a Cybertruck.
Sean W., yep, when cars lasted only about 6-7 years, people were more inclined to buy torquoise and purple cars, than if they might keep the same one 12-15 years. I still miss the variety of color choice. When I was 9, we had a purple and white ’55 Dodge.
While I hope only the best and know, now that it has hit the market, the Cybertruck will sell faster then they could ever build them! Yet, as great as the truck will be, IMHO, like the gull wing doors of the Model X, does it need to be wedge shapes, be bullet resistant, with “unbreakable” side windows? I’m not complaining, but do Cybertruck owners feel that they may be involved in drive by shoots? Should the unlike event that a Cybertruck driver found themselves in a collision and getting out of the vehicle quickly, could make all the difference, with rescue personnel already having to negotiate around a very power electric battery, now they have to get you out of a vehicle made from bull resistant metal and difficult to break glass?! While, as Musk said, in a collision with a lesser vehicle, the Cybertruck would win, what able a semi or other heavy equipment? With some much power on tap, if it ever got away from the driver, bad things could happen, but this is the case with any vehicle. While I’m excited to see Tesla’s successes and the Cybertruck is definitely seems to be trending in that direction! Yet, I can’t help but see how the Model 3 and Y have proven to be just as, if not more important to the automaker, with none of the exotic metals, extreme shapes, unique doors or even crazy fast Plaid versions! Just being a very, very, very good vehicle, ICE or BEV has been enough!
I like the smaller Toyota concept as is and the sedan-ish one is okay, but has too many convex shapes in the sheet metal that makes it a little jarring to my eye. While the overall shape and styling is fine, if the surfaces on the side/body were smoother, it would be hit to me, like the smaller one.
Kit- When I go to a car show I truly feel like its part automotive and part art exhibit. The vehicle designs of the 30s-70s just emphasizes the pinnacle of automotive expression. From the curves and shapes to the colors (inside and out) used to make vehicle stand out, it was obvious that standing out was the goal. Fuel efficiency and aerodynamics really started to suck the life out of expressive designs in the 1980s. I have tried to imagine what a car show will look like in 30 or 40 years from now. I really don’t see people gathering to look at a 40-year-old Kia Sportage’s or Jeep Grand Cherokee. I guess you can’t expect the American love affair with the automobile to be sustained with disposable vehicles that drive themselves. I enjoy driving and its sad that many new drivers will never experience the thrill of a high HP V8 that rattles the frame, has a manual gear box and allows you to feel the road through the wheel in your hand and the pedals at your feet. No screens, no electronics to tie in a phone, no distractions, just the thrill of driving and being in control of that much power that without some care can easily put you not in control. No ABS or driving assist features to save you from spinning out. Requiring you as a driver to hone your skills and learn how to drive on the edge of stability. To me that’s fun and although I don’t get the opportunity to push a car like that much anymore it is still a great memory and something I’m grateful I had the chance to experience. I’m not sure what car shows will look like years from now, but I have a feeling they will either remain the same celebrating the 30s-70s or pretty much fade into history along with the heyday of the automobile. Not to say they don’t build anything exciting today but that’s pretty few and far between anymore. It’s certainly not the family sedan like a 57 Chevy was.
wmb- I too wish Tesla the best with the Cybertruck but I just feel like if the demand was there in alignment with the reservations, they would be producing more than 40K a year. I voiced this before and will stand by my prediction that the Cybertruck will have no problem selling the first100K units. At that point I suspect sales will plumet and we will see some significant price drops and then maybe a slight spike in a few more sales but that truck will be lucky to see 200k In sales IMO.
You bring up a good point that I hadn’t thought of and raises some valid concerns for passenger safety. Not being able to easily break a window to escape an accident or worse a vehicle fire could be a big problem for Tesla. About the first time one has a battery fire and the occupants are unable to get out. The horrific thought of burning alive unable to escape could be the death of the truck if not at least an elimination of the bullet-proof glass.
I knew a person that had a ICE car catch fire while driving and the melting wires prevented the door locks from working making it difficult for her to open the rear doors to remove a baby in a car seat. Luckily it did not have the child safety locks on the rear doors because thats how they got it open was to reach in the drivers door and open the rear door from the inside. If that handle had been disabled and the unlock feature not working it could have ended very badly.
There are “exiting” cars now, as in fast and great handling, like Corvette. With those, you even have a little choice of interior colors. You can even get a manual transmission in a few of them, as in my Cayman. Today’s performance cars are a little boring because they are so “perfect,” with excellent drivability from cold start, driver aids, and generally good reliability, but functionally, they are the best ever.
As a driver of of small cars, I find it troubling that I have to share the road with more and more fast, 3+ ton tanks, now another one, Cybertruck. I just need to really hope I don’t tangle with one.
As far as colors, I looked up color choice of a representative ’60s car, a ’65 Chevy Impala, and there were 15 paint colors available, including reds, blues, greens, yellow, orchid, but only one shade of grey. How far we have fallen, as far as having a colorful automotive landscape.
Even now, I miss seeing original powertrains in cars at shows. I’d much rather see a flat head V8 in a ’32 Ford than the Chevy V8 you now normally see. I suppose in 30 years, most cars in shows will have electric motors.
Kit,
I suspect cars like the Corvette, Mustang, and other enthusiast oriented vehicles(jeep wrangler perhaps) will retain choice in colors and interiors. The grey mobiles will be the SUVs that everyone likes to buy in big numbers. I would expect vehicles like the highlander, equinox, trax, escape, and every other cross over SUV to be choiceless rental spec grey mobiles. Trucks may be spared the greying of the fleet, but I worry that they too will become grey rental spec vehicles.
Wrangler has some choice of paint color, in addition to 3 shades of grey, but nothing but black for the interior, from the build and price tool.
My Highlander is “moon dust,” which is metallic bluish grey. It is the closest to a color they had, other than the corporate metallic red.
Maverick has 4 shades of grey, black, white, and and one shade each of blue and red.
Looks like the sheet metal was bent by a tinsmith. UGLY UGLY UGLY.