AD #3364 – VW ID.4 Has 153 Days of Inventory; Copper Shortfall to Send Prices Soaring; Stellantis Dumps Chinese Partners

This is Autoline Daily, the show dedicated to enthusiasts of the global automotive industry.

STELLANTIS DUMPS CHINESE PARTNERS
Stellantis is dumping its joint venture partners in China. It’s closing down a joint venture it has with GAC, the Guangzhou Automotive Group. And it reached an agreement with Dongfeng to sell the shares it has in Stellantis. Stellantis has been losing money in China for years and has seen its sales plummet there. Now its plan is to import electrified Jeeps and to pursue an asset light strategy. That suggests to us it may hire a contract manufacturer like Magna or Foxconn to assemble vehicles for it in China. Other foreign automakers like Volkswagen and BMW are also taking more ownership and control of their joint ventures in China, and we expect others to do the same. The main reason we say that is the more of the joint venture you own, the more profits you get to keep.  

ASTON MARTIN FISHING FOR PARTNERS
Aston Martin wants to partner with either Mercedes, Lucid or Rimac to use one of their platforms for its future EVs. Chairman, Lawrence Stroll says Aston will launch a plug-in hybrid version of the DBX crossover next year or early 2024. And it wants to introduce its first all-electric model in 2025. Going with Mercedes would be an easy decision. It already owns nearly 10% of Aston and supplies it with engines. But it could collaborate with Lucid because Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is an investor in both companies. And Lawrence Stroll has mentioned coming out with an electric hypercar, so a partnership with Rimac could make sense. We’ll see what happens, but Aston plans to have a fully electric lineup by 2030.

COPPER SHORTFALL TO SEND PRICES SOARING
Everything seems to be in short supply these days and copper is going to be next on the list. S&P Global warns that a copper shortage is looming and supply won’t be able to meet demand or climate goals. Currently, copper costs $7,500 a metric ton but that’s expected to hit nearly $11,000 a ton later this decade. Demand for copper is expected to hit 50 million tons by 2035, double what it is today. And based on current trends, there could be a shortfall of 10 million tons by then because there aren’t enough new sources to mine. Recycling can help with the supply but it’s said it won’t be enough to bridge the gap.

HYUNDAI DESIGNS VTOL INTERIOR
The Hyundai Group plans to take mobility to the skies by 2028 with an electric passenger drone and is leveraging its automotive know-how to do it. Its air mobility division, called Supernal, showed off a cabin concept that was created with the help of designers on the automotive side of the Group. Not only are the seats and materials inspired by cars, but it features deployable seat storage that resemble center consoles and overhead lights that were inspired by sunroofs. And it doesn’t stop there. It also tapped the automotive side to help design the vehicle so that it’s easier to manufacture with the aim of making them more affordable. And it’s not just looking at electric. The Group is developing an air mobility vehicle that runs on hydrogen and hopes to introduce it in the 2030s. But the first goal is to certify the electric passenger drone for commercial use in the U.S., followed by Europe.

 

FORD STUFFS HORSES INTO THE RAPTOR R
And even though most of the world is going electric, I would argue this is the greatest era of piston-powered performance vehicles. And Ford just reached into its parts bin, snatched out the supercharged 5.2L V8 from the Mustang Shelby GT500, put it in the F-150 and now calls it the Raptor R. The 700-horsepower truck is meant to allow for “even more extreme off-roading.” Some of the upgrades have to do with the added torque of the V8, like a new front axle, torque converter and beefier driveshaft, while others were made to handle the extra weight and make the truck even more extreme. Those include longer trailing arms, a Panhard rod, 24-inch coil springs and electronically controlled Live Valve shocks from FOX. Special details, like the raised power dome on the hood help distinguish the Raptor R, which goes into production late this year.

PORSCHE TARGETS HIGHER MARGINS
Porsche is making the rounds with investors touting its initial public offering which is expected to happen in the next few months. Some analysts are predicting it could be worth 80 to 90 billion euros. But there’s some concern with investors that Porsche will remain too closely tied to VW even after its IPO. And there’s concern that the automaker won’t hold its value as well in a recession, compared to other more exclusive luxury brands like Ferrari. But for the past five years Porsche’s average operating margin is 16%. And it believes it can deliver high sales volumes along with high margins.

ROCKET TECH FOR FUEL CELL HYPERCAR
Here’s an interesting intersection of technologies. Viritech, a British startup that made a fuel cell hypercar, which debuted at the Goodwood Festival of Speed, and Reaction Engines are teaming up to make fuel cells even more efficient. Reaction Engines is a British company that’s developed a new type of rocket engine for space launches. A key part of its development is a thermal management system that can cut air temperature from 1000° C to room temperature in a fraction of a second. And Viritech wants to use that thermal system because it will allow it to reduce the size and weight of the fuel cell system, making them more efficient. The Apricale already has impressive specs. 1,000 horsepower in a car that only weighs 1,000 kilos, which is about 2,200 pounds. And even though Viritech came out with this wicked hypercar, it sees a bigger market for fuel cells in heavy trucks.  

VW ID.4 HAS 153 DAYS OF INVENTORY
The EV segment is growing fast in the American market. EV sales were up more than 60% in the first half of the year, even though the overall market fell 18%. But Volkswagen seems to be having a hard time getting car buyers to consider putting an ID.4 in their driveway. Sales of the ID.4 fell 30% in the first half and were down a staggering 75% in June. And it’s not a problem with low inventory. According to Ward’s Intelligence, VW has a 153-day supply of ID.4s. So we expect to see a big marketing campaign coming with discounts and incentives to move the metal. By the way, we’ve got a great video about how all the automakers performed with their EVs in the first half of the year, our very own EV Report Card, and we’ve got a link to that in today’s transcript or description box. 

But that brings us to the end of today’s show. Thanks for tuning in.